Friday, April 10, 2015

[DJIA] update, bearish model intact despite recent pounding of [UVXY]

I got stopped out of UVXY again earlier today for another small loss thus sidestepping most of today's UVXY smack down but I am looking to get back in again near the late afternoon or near the close when I see a good EW entry point because these rapid sell offs look like capitulation in volatility at the same time that the DJIA appears to be finishing wave 2 of a 3rd wave down.  This means that UVXY can, in an eyeblink, reverse wildly upward if the DJIA gaps down for 3 of 3 and I want to be in it when that happens because, dear reader, the time has never been more ripe for my long awaited 500+ point DOWn day.

I don't know if EWI will end up being right that the current wave is C of B of a massive 4th wave that will end up plummeting below DJIA 3k OR whether Avi is right that the current wave is just a 3rd wave of a larger bullish structure.  But I do currently model and thus believe that blue 5 as shown on the daily chart below is a 5th wave and that, at the very least, we should see an a-b-c back to the level of the prior 4th at ~16k on the DJIA.  I think that a 2000 point pullback on the DJIA would rocket UVXY at least double if not much higher.

While long term models are great for bragging rights, it's the short term model that I am most interested.  Drive for show, putt for dough.  So the 30 minute inlay is where my attention lies and it suggests that today will likely finish the C wave of the flat correction that I have been discussing recently.

One of two things will most likely transpire here:
  • DJIA will peak today and then begin to sell off hard on Monday, possibly with a gap down as indicated by the green rectangle on the daily chart below.
  • DJIA will peak today or Monday and then do a controlled a-b-c retracement down to ~17820 and then move up into some larger structure which is currently not obvious to me but could turn out to be some sort of large rising wedge.
Today UVXY was down 8% on a measly 80 point DJIA run.  This suggests undue optimism and it also suggests that volatility is being shorted by retail gamblers.  I smell a trap being laid for these people and when volatility turns against them it will not be pretty because volatility can be, well, volatile!  They could see a 50% or even 100% move up in a single day for UVXY.

While nobody knows the future, my DJIA model is telling me to hold UVXY over the weekend.

No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More