Sunday, February 8, 2015

More leverage in nat gas [WHZ]

First post in WHZ.  I have no idea the fundamentals, I just saw it on some chat board when I googled for "leveraged natural gas play".  Fundamentals don't matter much IMO unless the company is about to BK.  The herd want to overpay for AAPL products today because AAPL is "cool".  Tomorrow AAPL will be out of vogue and they will not be able to make the ridiculous margins that they have been reaping.  Where are the fundamentals in measuring "in vogue" or not?  Mood of the herd is best monitored using EW and mood of the herd controls stock prices.

Again, without at least one clear pullback it is difficult to be sure about this count.  Also, the W3 is an iffy call because the lower rail is violated once.  I am still testing the limits of what constitutes W3 and what does not and this one is borderline.  But the rest of the count seems solid.  The play here is to buy the open tomorrow and then stop out quickly if it goes lower.  Then if it just does 5 small waves up to $8.50, bail out because the next move is probably going to be a deep vee second.  If you see that happen then that is a clear buy signal folks.

Note that nat gas bottomed right at the first of the year while USO (crude) bottomed almost a month later.  So nat gat is mos def ahead of this count.  This is going to be a very interesting year for commodities folks.  Buy the dip, don't chase the peak.  It always comes back to you at some point.

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