In addition, the strength and straightness of the current wave up is putting into great question all models that suggest that the action Jan 22-Jan30 was anything but corrective.
One model that makes sense here is my original worry, that this was a 4th wave HT. If this turns out to be the case then I suspect the wave will kiss the top rail, pull back a-b-c (trade-able of course) and then break out to seemingly never ending new highs. This is not the conventional wisdom model but the conventional model took a beating today.
I'm going to need more data to figure out what is going on here. That is not something that happens often. I usually have at least some idea of what could happen but unless it is playing out per above I don't currently know what it could be.
When in doubt, sit it out!!! Biggest mistake I used to make in the past was to get stuck on a theme like "markets will go down soon" and then keep making bets in that way even though I would get stopped out too many times. So I have learned one thing and it is if it is a shitty hand, don't play. Cash is a position! Plus there is oil and other stuff to play on the pullback.
In any case, like I said, there is still a very small chance that the recent action could be corrective. I know that the market becomes very tricky near the major turns and shows increased volatility. We are getting plenty of both of these right now.
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