Weekend update: Gold breakout is not a slam dunk yet - caution advised.

I've done more thinking on this GLD chart and I want to communicate some growing concerns I am having with the conventional wisdom wave count for GLD.  Despite my current willingness to accept the conventional wisdom count bullish GLD count, I suggest keeping the following things in mind for next week:

1. These leveraged ETFs often have a habit of bottoming in the low to mid $2 range.  TVIX eventually fell to $2 and JNUG could as well.
2. Avi Gilbert's price range for GLD was not hit so it remains a distinct possibility.
3. GLD has not seen 5 clear waves up yet.  Conventional wisdom EW counts say that the bottom is in but the juniors have not been reacting positively to the GLD move.  This could be taken as bearish nonconfirmation.
4. Perhaps most importantly to me, the GLD chart does not look motive to me so far.  This could be fixed in my view if it would break the top rail shown below and NOT break back down through the lower rail again. But if it puts in a 5th of C in the ending diagonal and then breaks back down it will have bounced to the level of the prior 4th wave using an a-b-c move and that would strongly suggest that the 5th wave down still has to play out into early January.
5. If JNUG catches a bid as GLD moves from 117 to ~121, be sure to use reasonable stops of 5% on JNUG to avoid giving back those gains.  Once stopped out, stay out unless the chart puts in a subsequent higher high.  Stay out until we get another valid entry point which will likely mean 5 waves down to a lower low on GLD and a plummeting of JNUG to $2.  Patience will be your friend here.
6. Once this happens the odds go up exponentially that JNUG has bottomed and the next move up will be an incredible ride.

 GLD could still break out of this pattern so I am far from throwing in the towel on the conventional wisdom wave count but there is good evidence that warns us of more potential downside until the real bottom is in.

GLD needs to show me something dramatic at this point.  Until it does, strong caution is advised on JNUG.