High probability that the S+P 500 has peaked for now.

In several fairly recent posts such as this one I have expressed my unpopular view that the S+P 500 is showing many technical signs of being significantly overbought and that a major reversal is coming soon.  Today's S+P 500 update only serves to reinforce that view for me.  I suspect that these 5 waves are an ending diagonal and that the top support line will break down soon followed by a breakdown of the bottom support line.  The structure of these breakdowns, should they occur as my current model predicts, will have to guide where I think the model would take us from there.

From a fundamental perspective, the market has no real value.  It is simply an indicator of how much confidence the herd has that the US government will be able to keep the Global Debt Ponzi plates spinning.  All con games rely on confidence since there is nothing substantial underpinning their operation.  So it is with the stock markets.  When I read the news of late I see all the world leaders now working feverishly to do their own currency swaps to distance themselves from the dollar.  I see the Saudis upset at Obama and his RINO counterparts such as McCain for their inability to herd the American people into yet another foreign war, this time in Syria.  I see the Obama administration going after US and international banks.  I see Obama's signature health care scam going down in flames at a level far deeper than a broken web site.  I see great anger and angst of the American people against the administration.  All of this is adding up to a significant loss of confidence at exactly the time when consumer confidence is hitting a very significant technical resistance point.

All of these things suggest that the stock market bull run is about to roll over.  If that E wave breaks down through the 2 support lines as I suspect it will, your 401k will want to be in cash, folks.