Thursday, November 14, 2013

Dark horse pulls ahead in the S+P topping race

In this post I provided 3 options for the imminent topping of the S+P 500.  The lowest probability route didn't even get a chart modeled.  I gave it only 5% chance.  That route consisted of the 5th of C extending so that C would be longer than A.  Well, that just happened as you can see from the 5 minute chart below.   So I think the S+P 500 is done.  It could well end in a declining double top as shown below (Owl Ears).  If we get this intra-day reversal it will be a signal to the trading computers to take money off the table.  I am not the only one following Elliott waves.

If this plays out as expected, the main stream financial pundits will come up with some excuse, some day to day reason why the S+P is going down.  But the truth is that it never should have gone up in the first place.  The real fundamental that matters is jobs and jobs have not come back to support this stock market expansion driven by money printing.  The herd decided to trust Bernanke and since 2009 it has piled into the stock market on leveraged.  But with Bernanke leaving and Yellen being clueless (besides Bernanke's inability to taper), it seems that confidence might be running out in the con.   It is confidence that moves these fluffy markets, not the fake fundamentals sold to people by Wall St. stock salesmen.  With confidence peaking (as indicated by the EW chart pattern), the herd will likely head south now.  Odds, not certainties, but high odds IMO.

As usual, time will tell.


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