Friday, November 22, 2013

Calling a top on Home Depot

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Note: this post was sitting in draft form for a couple days by mistake (I thought it had been posted, not saved as draft).  Clearly the snapshot was taken before the chart began to turn down (which it has if you go look at it today).  I came back today to do an update and found that this was still draft.  Just wanted to make that clear since the posting date will be later than the chart and I don't want anyone to think I'm trying to backdate anything.  I use Ameritrade StrategyDesk as a charting tool and there is no way to only chart within a time window.  Everything in blue below was in draft form until today and no edits from that draft were made as I post it today
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Wall St, darling Home Depot is likely within 10 days of topping so I am calling a top on it for purposes of selling. In other words, anyone looking for an exit point should be looking for the door right now.  It's too soon to go short on it - that is best left until the herd proves the direction.  But for profit taking, now is the time IMO.

The reason I would say something like this is the well defined shape of its chart.  It has 5 clear waves up.  1-3 is parallel to 2-4 and there is evidence of alternation there as well.  The 5th of 5 is ending in a 5 wall bump with a throw over already in progress.  I think HD's bull run ends somewhere within that red circle.  If that happens, expect a trip back to at least $60, minimum.


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