Friday, November 29, 2013

Solar panels: a REAL investment if you can get in at the right price.

I chuckle when I hear people talking about the stocks and bonds and other paper garbage that they are "investing" in.  These folks don't know what the word investing even means.  They have been brainwashed into thinking that speculating in paper assets or in buying bitcoins because they seem to go up each day as "investing". Of course, these are not investments any more than going to Vegas is an investment.  The only true investment is one where you spend money in order to increase productive capacity.  In other words, you save some of your excess income and INVEST in something that will by its very nature (and not by chance or luck) enable you to CONSUME a lot more while only doing a little more work.

When you build tools, be they physical or software or even mental tools such as specific knowledge, the value of these tools is that they serve as a labor multiplier going forward.  If you need to turn the soil in order to plant crops you can do it with a shovel if you like but a plow and a horse will amplify your labor by perhaps 10x.  Better still, a tractor and diesel fuel will amplify your labor by 100x or maybe even 1000x.  As a result of more apparent labor, your productive output is higher and thus your value generation rate is higher.  This is the basis of real capitalism.  You invest money to acquire productive equipment (capital equipment) which increases productivity and thus enables higher levels of consumption.

I am now in the process of completing my roof solar investment.  I was able to get 68 solar panels, each one of them a Q-Cells Q.base 225 panel, installed on my roof.  The workers just finished bolting them up there today.  That's 15.3 kW DC of rated capacity (actual peak generation will probably only be 90% of that number).   That is a lot of solar for a single family home but since I live in a single story detached dwelling there was enough south-ish facing roof surface area.  Because of the thrifty way I did this (acquiring the panels from a bankrupt solar company over Ebay), I kept my cost per watt way down.  As a result, I expect this system to produce 102% of my annual consumption needs which means that I should not be paying for electricity again at home.  Ever. In doing the math, this investment is providing me a 13% annual ROI.  Even after adding in expected maintenance costs, it will pay for itself in under 7 years and then continue producing electricity for me to 80% rated capacity for another 18 years past that (under warranty).  It will also be keeping my attic more cool since the panels will convert the light energy into electricity instead of warming up my attic.

In truth, I think that it will pay for itself far sooner than that because I expect that Texas electricity rates will begin to climb as the great debt Ponzi continues to collapse.  Our electricity only costs about 12 cents per KWH with all the fees and taxes tacked on.  Under the guise of global warming and carbon credits and with the guilt trip of needing to be "green", our rates will likely begin to climb dramatically in the next 5 years IMO.  I expect 20 cents per kWh to be the average price by 2018.  At that rate my savings will be even more dramatic.  Additionally, a penny of expense saved is a penny earned but without the taxation that occurs on earnings.  In other words, it is far better to pay a lower price for something at your current rate of pay than it is to increase your pay by $1 and then pay $1 more for that same item because corrupt government taxation on your extra earned dollar leaves you with something like 50-75 cents of actual buying power after they rip you off.  That's why governments love inflation - they get a cut of each inflated transaction.    This is also why they hate barter as it cuts them out of the transaction completely.

I am really anxious to get my solar generation capacity online.  I think it should be up and running within 2 weeks.  I'll post some updates on this as the project progresses.

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