Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Sudden volume spike in the VXX today...

I'm currently looking for separate confirmation (or lack thereof) for my recently started VXX bottom watch.  Check out that volume spike that occurred today.  It's the largest single day volume in years.  That coupled with other factors already discussed lend more credence to my previously stated view which is that the market has been too complacent for too long.  It has counted on the Bernanke Put. 

This has convinced the herd not to buy real puts and the result is that the VXX has had no real rallies in some years now.  I think that with the loss of confidence in Obama that is finally being driven by the utter failure of his signature program (you know, the one with his damned name on it), the herd is going to start getting nervous and that should show up as a renewed interest in buying put options.  Rising demand for these options will increase their price and with it the VIX and thus the VXX ETF.

The bottom for VXX has not been confirmed yet and in fact only very preliminary signs of this have shown up.  It could still follow my original model of a pull back to $30 before it finally bottoms. A fall below $46 would suggest lower prices are coming and a rise above $48.50 would be another piece of evidence suggesting a bottom is either in place or very close.  The double bottom that I pointed out earlier today could always turn into an expanding triangle since they are very common right now.

In any case the volume spike has got to be getting people's attention.  It is literally a red flag that people are getting worried about government support of the equities markets.





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