Monday, November 4, 2013

Alcoa performing spot on with EW model [AA]

It's not often that I can predict the day by day moves using EW but the Alcoa pattern was clear enough that I gave it a shot.  Here is a link to the last post on this stock. It showed that a pullback had occurred as expected, that it was supposed to be a 4th wave (4 of 1) and that 1 more wave up is expected (the 5th wave; 5th of 1 that is).

Assuming that this 5th of 1 is now complete (it might need one more tiny wave up to just break $10 before reversing), the EW model now suggests a pull back to the 38.2 fib ($9.14) or the 50% fib (8.88) or the 61.8% fib (8.63).  An alternate count would be that today's thrust was only 1 of 5 of 1.  In other words, there really has not been an extended wave in this series and it often occurs that 1 of the waves gets an extra emphasis/extension.

 

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