In this recent post I suspected that DRYS had finished wave 2 and that wave 3 was on deck. Today, the shares exploded upward to close more than 12% up on the day. That move looks like 5 waves up. So I believe it was 1 of 3. Wave 2 should be a pullback to at least the 38.2 fib and then the real fireworks should start with a breakout of the upper resistance level as wave 3 of 3 unfolds.
If this Elliott wave stuff is starting to look a little too lucky to be luck then don't get too excited. It's simply an odds evaluation tool with built in triggers. It gets more accurate at times and less accurate at others in my experience. As soon as too many people start using it, it makes its own weather, just like the leveraged boys who were running LTCM back in the 90s before it went bust. But for now, the patterns seem to be pretty clear. I think that in times of stress, the wave patterns are more pronounced because the herd has less time to think, less time to pick its way through the crocodiles lining the banks.
Saturday, November 2, 2013
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