When I talk to people about how money and the economy works, how the policies of the federal reserve are known to be destructive over the long term and how the coming great reset is a "when not if" affair, one of the first things they ask me is "so when will all this happen?". Of course that is a childish question from people with childish levels of eduction in these matters, but it is so very human that I think it warrants some kind of response. Note: childishness does not imply stupidity but rather naivete. It is not intended in the pejorative but rather as a concise statement of fact. If there is any sin on the part of the victim here, it is simply that he/she is too trusting. There is a reason that this video introduction regarding hyperinflation states that "parental discretion is advised". The creators of that video also know that most people out there are economic children.
I fully understand the reason that this question is asked: I lack credibility in the eyes of the herd. First, I do not have paper certificates from academia stating how proud they are that I am an indoctrinated disciple. I don't have any Nobel prize from the welfare state extolling my competence in this subject matter. I can tell people that I've spent well over 4000 hours doing a deep dive on this subject not from the standpoint of someone trying to earn a paper certificate but rather from the standpoint of wanting to survive it. I can also cite the writings of others who do have the sheepskins and awards. But none of this seems to matter to most people. They really do not want to hear the message and so they make up hoop after hoop for me to jump through before they will even listen to the logic of what I am saying. They have basically outsourced all of their critical thinking to the establishment.
So again, I understand the reason for the question. But the question is like asking "when will I die"? In my view, knowing the the exact date and hour is not as important as understanding that it is inevitable. If you know that something will certainly happen, you should prepare for it even if you do not know the exact day or time. I apply the same thinking to the coming economic collapse. Conversely, most people don't like to think about dying and so they live their lives as if they are immortal. It is thus no wonder that people also don't want to think about the great reset that is coming. Like their inescapable deaths, they hope it will never happen.
While nobody can predict the date and time of their passing, we can with some degree of accuracy predict where a person is in the process. This is because human life follows a mania model. It begins with sperm and egg which then unite and grow at an exponential rate for a period of time. Then there is a leveling off for a time and then the great decline. When it's over, the remains are less than where it started. You had two viable cells at the start but in death there is no life in the body at all. The mania of human life cycle retraces to below its starting point like all manias do. It is also instructive to review the mania growth cycle of bacteria in a Petri dish because the whole cycle takes hours, not decades. In an economy based on the fraudulent principles of fiat currency and fractional reserve lending, debt is the growth medium.
So while we cannot predict these manias with exactness, the use of models can help us figure out where we are in the life cycle of them. The Elliott wave principle is the basis of the model that I choose to use. While the bacteria model shows smooth lines all around, in real life nothing goes straight up or straight down like that. The Elliott wave principle shows us how these waves wend and wind toward their eventual destinations.
If you apply the Elliot wave model to the current velocity of money chart, you will see a very interesting pattern forming. Bernanke has been printing like a maniac and yet we have not seen hyperinflation. Those calling for immediate hyperinflation appear to be fools, for now, in the eyes of the herd. It all seems like magic (or possibly "magick" for those who understand such things).
People sense that hard times are ahead and so they are trying to save for a rainy day. This is what the falling VOM chart is shouting at us. LOOK AT IT! The VOM is now at an all time low, lower than 1965! That was when people were very conservative and today's VOM is still much lower.
While saving is a very good, very smart thing to do, you have to use a savings medium that has real, enduring value. It will not pay you to have your life savings denominated in Cheerios box top coupons. Sure, they have some value today on the next purchase of cereal, but this is not money. The USD is no different than cereal box coupons. It is not a store of wealth. Still, people are currently hoarding it as if it were. They will soon discover the error of their ways.
And so now we (finally) get to the original question: how much longer until massive inflation or even hyperinflation arrives. My EW model for the VOM chart indicates that we are now working on the 5th wave down. In fact, I reckon that 1 of 5 and 2 of 5 are certainly done. I suspect that 3 of 5 is done or close to being done as well. That means we get a bump up here into 4 of 5 before one more down thrust into wave 5 of 5. After that 5th of 5 plays out, I think the VOM chart will reverse wildly. Instead of people hoarding the money, something will happen that will cause them to flee it. I suspect that something will be a so called currency event accompanied by rapidly rising interest rates. In other words, the federal reserve will lose control of the bond market. When that happens, the VOM will skyrocket and it will do so on top of a much higher monetary base.
The official definition of VOM seems rather benign if you read it but it will not be so benign in practice now that Bernanke has distorted the monetary base so badly in order to fight deflation. Despite his blatant lies about being able to pull back his monetary stimulus at any time, this is something he can never do without causing an immediate loss of confidence in the system. When that confidence goes, the VOM will skyrocket as von Misses' Crackup Boom begins to unfold. People will see that dollars in fact have no real value and so they will trade them for things that they don't really need in the hopes of trying to store some value before the currency is abandoned by the people completely.
The time line of the above EW model shows that we only have a couple years left before people lose confidence in the con game. This coincides with a long standing prediction of mine that the con must collapse before the majority of patsies (AKA the baby boomers who have gotten herded into the stock market via the 401k laws) can extract their savings from the system. This is because the value that their accounts represent really does not exist and it never did. Prices of stocks and bonds got bid to the moon and so people think that they are wealthy by reading their account statements. But this is no different than what Madoff customers (patsies) believed right before he was proven to be running a Ponzi.
It is really the failed attempts by the herd to collect on the Ponzi promises made to them by the Ponzi operators which will finally awaken the herd to the scam.
Only then will most people figure out that they are patsies of the con. The EW model tells me we have perhaps 2 years, perhaps 3 years before the velocity of money takes off. When you see this you had better run, not walk, to get out of the fiat currency based system. The preferred mechanism for this is to stock up on food and other consumer goods instead of leaving excess savings in the bank. If you have stocked up for at least 1 year of food for each person you need to support and you still have excess wealth, the right place for it is gold and silver coins. After the great reset, these things will still have value. Paper currency? Not so much.
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