Friday, November 8, 2013

Amazing corellation between Alcoa real time performance and EW model [AA]

In this back link I provided a model showing 5 waves up had completed for Alcoa and that a sharp pullback was the likely next step.  If you look at the chart in the back link you will see that there was absolutely no outward indication that the stock was ready for this kind of massive pullback.  It was not "rolling over" or even showing any signs of slowing down.  But the EW still predicted it with what can only be described as amazing accuracy.




























This recent plunge is not the end of Alcoa's run but rather a smack down by the short sellers who were getting very nervous that they were about to lose control of the shares.   Lest you look at the recent moves and lose sight of the bigger picture, Alcoa is just a tiny stones throw off the bottom.  This is a buying opportunity, pure and simple.  The recent aggressive pullback suggests that an a-b-c retracement lower than the usual max of 61.8% is possible so I would not go "all in".  But if you dollar cost average into this one over the next few weeks you will be holding shares that are due for a massive bounce at or very close to the decade+ bottom.  The coming inflation will eventually push up all the commodities.

Having said that, all stocks are as worthless as baseball trading cards if they do not pay a dividend that exceeds the real cost of inflation (which is much higher than stated by the government).  It could easily happen that the entire stock market collapses into near nothingness.  Don't think it can't happen: we are in a bigger debt bubble than at any time in the history of the planet.  It's going to collapse at some point for sure.   But hey, what's wrong with a little gambling on the ponies, errrr, I mean investing in stocks?















No comments:

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More