Is the fat lady warming up? [$TNX.X]

Way back in this post I modeled a bottom for interest rates.  That turned out to be the actual bottom.  Since then rates have been moving up but the break out is not yet confirmed.  Everything up until now could be a big rising wedge.  That's not a prediction, it's just a statement of fact.

If this is going to be a wedge it likely needs to break back down into the channel in the next 1-3 trading days.  But if this begins to gap up next week then fegeddaboutit - the fat lady will be screaming at the top of her lungs that the fed has lost control of the bond market.  If this happens then stocks and bonds will both fall in value with higher bond rates.

The 360 minute chart of $TNX.X needs to be watched closely because this could still go either way.