[ABX] update and applies to all M+M

Back in early May I took some time to really think about ABX because the EWI model, which is that we are in a corrective a-b-c upward, was not panning out.  The motive waves of this correction (i.e. the a and c waves) were themselves corrective looking, not motive.  I concluded that the odds stood with those thinking that there was more downside.

In the backlink I continued with this near term bearish view and provided the model below.



Today's snapshot is below.  Note how I put two different possible counts leading to the same end result.  In the first, green 3 reverses into 5 rail bumps with a small throwover on wave 5.  In the wx centric model, w3' reverses into an a-b-c into green 4. In either case we should expect 5 waves down.

So far it has only been 3 waves down so this is not confirmed yet.  However gold broke down through important support @ $1180 so the odds support those who do not look for a short stroke 5th.  Assume for now that the worst case will happen with ABX plummeting to $8 at which time P/B and P/S would both be <1 (just where Prechter indicated in his book, Conquer the Crash).
 
In fact, hope for it!  Because if this occurs then GLD, which sits at $112.87 today would then be the the $95 - $105 range that Avi has been targeting for months now.  It would indicate a major, major, once in a lifetime bottom in M+M.  According to Avi's model, which I do like from an EW perspective, it would be the bottom of a massive 2nd wave.  That would mean that the next wave up would be a 3rd and that means gold would begin to take off in a big way.