[ABX] update

In the backlink I gave ABX every benefit of the doubt but it would not stop at WC.  Since then it declined to a lower low.  So at this point, the chart shows 5 waves down.  At minimum I would expect a run back up to $12 as shown in the red model below.  

But here's the thing.  After E of 4 is complete, the only EW rule that is in effect at that point is that we should see 5 waves down.  Generally this forms a lower low but it doesn't have to.  It can short stroke or fail the 5th and it is entirely up to the herd which way it will go.  I held JNUG though today's beating because I was doing so well on my UVXY.  Now I bailed on UVXY for the time being and will be watching the count tomorrow to see if adding to my JNUG is well advised.

But if we only get a-b-c to the level of the prior 4th ($12 on ABX) I will step to the sidelines and then look for Avi's GLD $95-$105 prediction to play out.  If that happens then I am going to place record sized bets on JNUG.  I don't know if we will get there or not and in fact I'm starting to have doubts simply because it would be such a clear buy signal that I think too many will front run that trade.  Only time will tell about that but the long term outlook is less important than understanding the current near term wave count and I count 5 waves down as complete.  So we should get a good rally in M+M right now at the very least.

Since 2011 people have acted like gold doesn't matter, gold is for idiots and extremists and preppers (a term used in the pejorative by those morons who would themselves die of starvation if store shelves went empty for as little as 2-3 weeks...), the fed has got it all figured out, they can always come up with some plan to appease the herd, etc.  These things sound good to people who do not have the history lesson understood and who are ignorant about money and economics and herding behavior.  All this time the herd has not lost sight of the real purpose or value of gold, it has just been whistling past the fake paper money graveyard.

I hope all of my readers are, over time, saving real long term wealth using real money which is gold and silver coins.  I hope that they are not trusting their retirement accounts to any paper representations of gold including BitGold which Mish has been pumping of late.  Bitgold is just another promise from just another stranger.  Do you think that they are somehow too honest to steal from you?  Too honest to try to maximize their profits even if it adds unknown amounts of risk to you?  Do you trust their audits when the auditor is not you?  I don't. 

Folks, please ignore the stupid statements people make about it being difficult to store your own physical metals.  Does it take a little thought, preparation and effort?  Like anything worth having, yes it does.  But once done, you have real peace of mind that nobody is going to, with the support of a bankruptcy court and the police state, suddenly notify you in writing that all the gold you were counting on for your old age is just gone now, so sorry, now fuck off like a good little sheeple, won't you? 

I cannot think of anything more stupid than to believe that the global economic system is near total collapse and then in the same thought to believe that your crash protection gold is safe in someone else's hands. 

Even if the establishment is run honestly, what if a gang of armed thugs goes to the offices of Bitgold after having kidnapped the wife, son and daughter of the CEO?   Drag the family before the husband/father, put 1 bullet between the eyes of the wife and then ask the CEO how long it will take him to authorize putting every ozt of stored gold in the vehicles of the thieves while patting the children on the head menacingly.  In two shakes of a lamb's tail all your gold will be handed over to the armed thugs and that will be the last you see of it.

So in a real crisis, even honesty isn't good enough.  Could the thugs do the same thing to me?  Sure, if they knew I had all this gold they might try it.  But my holdings are small compared to some corporate holdings and I am armed and ready.  So the risk/reward for thieves just isn't there with the individual the way it is with a corporation.  Bottom line: hold your own metals and just buy them instead of throwing money into a 401k.  The government is going to steal the lion's share of those government controlled accounts (yes, the government controls your access to them and you agreed to it, sucker!) before this collapse is played out but they will not receive one single troy oz of my gold or silver without a huge gun battle happening.  I'll make them earn their pay should the day come when they try to separate me from my retirement wealth.