[HUI] update

In the backlink I cautioned that $HUI could be forming a H+S pattern.  Here is the chart from that post.



In today's update we can see that the neckline broke down but not with gusto.  While it is far from certain, I have seen potential H+S patterns reverse upward via the blue path before and the usual tell that this has higher probability of happening is circled in green at far left.  In other words, the neckline was already breached at the beginning of the formation showing that some of the bearishness might already have spent itself.  Many TA folks would just draw the rough line across the triple bottom declare it a H+S and then not think another thing about it.  But I think the micromoves are potential tells that cannot be ignored.  If the red path is to be taken into a full on H+S meltdown then I think we need to test the neckline from below before turning hard downward.  But if the chart breaks back up through the neckline per the blue then don't get stuck on the H+S model.

The best thing that could happen to new M+M investors would be the red path.  It would signal the bottom of the entire bear since 2011 and likely usher in Avi's 3rd wave up scenario.  The blue path would lend more credence to the more bearish EWI model.