In many prior posts on Intel and more recently ADI I wrote that tech shares of all kinds get bid up to the stars because non-technical investors (i.e. most of the herd) see tech as sort of magical. They envision incredible things happening in a very short period of time, only some of which ever really comes to fruition. Tech represents hope to greedy investors. One of the first signs that the markets are about to collapse is when hope begins to collapse, and from where I sit watching tech shares collapse, hope is collapsing.
Today's installment of this same theme comes in the form of Micron shares (ticker: MU). According to my model, everything since 2009 has been a dead cat bounce, rising to the level of the 38.2% fib. While everyone is focused on the big indices and the news about the latest Greek bail out (or lack thereof), the most speculative techs have been in veritable free fall. This showing by other tech players strongly suggests to me that Intel will likely break down its H+S and the broader markets will come tumbling down as well. Maybe we have to wait for August or September for this to begin showing up in the DJIA - nobody knows the exact timing. But the selling in transports and now in tech cannot be ignored. Now is the time to start spending up on those 2017 puts folks.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
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