Monday, June 29, 2015

[IBB] update

While I correctly called a peak in IBB shares in the backlink, I do want to be clear about what Elliott waves says about it.  Yes, I do currently count it as "the" peak but in fact it would be legal under EW rules for that to only be 1 of 5 with more upside as shown in red below.  The red I-beam shows that blue 5 is not as long as blue 1 and they are usually about equal in length when wave 3 is extended as it was below.

Bottom line: be careful making to big of a short term negative bet here.  So far the chart has only pulled back to the level of the prior 4th and that is often a sign that the wave was corrective and not motive.  But we will likely have a better idea about it over the next 1-2 trading days.  The one thing that most makes me believe that IBB could be done here was the 30% move on UVXY.   Shorts were covering there like mad today.




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