Potential Intel wrinkle.

In this post I correctly modeled the end of a rising wedge.  Below left is the model from that post which implied a break down after the wedge completed, below right is the chart as of last Friday.  So I should be all happy and confident but for some reason I am not and that reason is called GE.  GE has many attributes that suggest it is just finished with a 4th as posted about earlier today.  So it means I need to look around at other charts for potential signs of confirmation of that model and I think I see such confirmation in the Intel shares below.

If wedges are 3rds or Cs then maybe the left was not the full C wave which is marked in other recent Intel posts but rather only 3rd of C.  If that were the case then we should expect an a-b-c retracement where C is the stronger of the 3 waves.  Well, that looks like what Intel just did.  In fact, Intel seems like it bottomed into the C wave and is now done with wave 1 up and wave 2 of 5 back down.  That suggests that early next week we get a strong move up in Intel - a 3rd of 5 wave, then a sideways and then the REAL end of its 2009 bull market when the 5th wave plays out.

Like GE it could be a short stroke 5th that results in a declining double top.  It could end up being a blip that fills the gap in C of 4 above right.  But it could also put in a slightly higher high in line with the top orange rail of the rising wedge.  In an extreme case, it could even take a couple days and throw over the top rail of the entire expanding wedge but given so many other factors I don't think that will be the case.  I think it will be a short stroke double top of some kind that will likely be done before mid next week and that is IFF the DJIA doesn't gap down on Monday and erase all of these "last minute bounce" postulations.

If Intel does get a bounce early next week, it will begin its real bear market along with GE and the entire market will experience the 911 collapse effect - you know - free falling into their own foot print at the speed of gravity.  At least for some time.

This model would be invalidated by a break down of Intel below $30.50 on Monday.

Keep in mind, I am bearish on these markets and the comments and views about GE and Intel getting a bounce are very short term thinking.  Any damage done to TVIX will quickly be reversed.  But if you see these things playing out it might be nice to avoid the short term pain.