My model indicates that Peak Credit has likely arrived.

In this post I provided a model that indicated we were very near Peak Credit.  Here is the close in chart from that post.  As you can see, this model expected a bit more of a rise.:

Here is the recent update.  Unfortunately, I cannot find the exact same chart on FRED anymore, at least not the weekly reported one that was not seasonally adjusted (i.e. smoothed).  I cannot use a smoothed chart, it hides the count...

But since all of these credit charts look the same (it is one big market after all), I just picked another one (below) which does have weekly granularity and which is not seasonally adjusted.  This chart zooms in on just the time frame within the green box above.  Note that in the previous post I marked where Sept 1st was and indicated that I thought there should be a little more northbound action before the reversal began. As you can see, that happened.  The a little pullback and then a partial recovery.  If my model is correct there should not be another new high in this graph.  In fact, we should expect a visible down turn as tiny wave 3 moves lower (tiny waves 1 and 2 are already printed according to this model):

Time will tell but it would be pretty cool if the model was able to track the beginning of the crash of the Global Debt Ponzi to this fine a degree.  Such things are supposed to be impossible according to many people.  Time will tell but this game is always about odds and not certainties.  The word "likely" should appear at pretty much the start of every chart prediction I show in these pages and my models have been wrong plenty of times.  After all, they are just models...