Friday, October 31, 2014

Greenspan is not a short term market timer but he likes gold right now.

Greenspan is out and about flapping his gums for a good reason: he knows that SHTF pretty soon and wants to be on record with how he saw the risk in advance, etc.  Such statements are more important than people think because when the herd gets very mad it WILL go looking for heads to roll or even blood.  So while we could not trust Greeny as far as we could throw him while in office, I tend to listen to his "hints" pretty closely now that he is a sidelines commentator.

In this article, Greeny says two things worth considering:
  1. Paraphrased: "...gold is a good place to put money these days given its value as a currency outside of the policies conducted by governments."
  2. "... real pressure is going to occur not by the initiation by the Federal Reserve, but by the markets themselves”.
These things are related IMO.  The only reason to own gold is if you don't trust government controlled money.  Greeny's reason for owning it is exactly that: he suggests wisdom in owning wealth that is beyond government's control.  As for point number 2, he is telling us that the fed won't raise rates on its own.  It will lose control of the bond markets.  This is just as I have discussed many times.  People who think that the fed actually controls interest rates are going to be shocked to see interest rates going up even before Yellen increases the fed funds rate.  The only reason she will increase FFR is to maintain the appearance that the fed is controlling the rates.  But if you look at the data and compare the 10 year treasury rate to the fed funds rate you will always see the treasury rate move first.  The fed, at the end of the day, is actually a trend follower.

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