TVIX model for the next couple days.

Folks, listen.  The markets are now at the long term support that I mentioned in this post.  That does not mean it will hold.  It just means there will be a struggle before  the markets succumb to the Ponzi collapse.  Only a fool expects anything less.  At the same time, only someone who doesn't understand the real fundamentals of the debt Ponzi believes that a collapse is in any way avoidable.  Once that support is broken down, expect soon to see the big one day losses in the markets that I have been writing about for a long time as being a clear sign of impending market collapse.

I don't know how the herd will ultimately handle the break down of this support massive support but I am convinced it will happen soon.   The true fundamentals are demanding it.  All I have is a model to go by but a model is good enough.  In fact, it was no less than awesome for me today.  People might not believe it because it doesn't happen to them but here is my trading gains for today, cut and pasted from my Ameritrade console just now.



Yes.  Due to having expected market support here (per the post linked above), I side stepped the TVIX sell off and knew that it was nothing more than a short term retracement.  I successfully traded the intermediate waves up and down a total of 6 times in order to achieve this performance. Because of the recent action I think some kind of 4th wave triangle is happening.  IFF this model turns out to be correct then it will likely have a similar shape as below.

So here is my TVIX playbook for the next couple days (IFF the model plays out as expected):
Wait for the current wave to bottom with 5-3-5 (a-b-c) into something that is a higher low than orange "a".  That low should mark orange "c" of black 4. 

If it goes lower than orange a, the model is bust and so get safe and keep looking.  But if you do see the a-b-c to a higher low, buy that dip and ride it up to the top rail (or when 5-3-5 is seen).  That should be orange d of 4.  Sell again and then wait for 5-3-5 down into orange e / black 4.






If the model is correct,  e of 4 should bottom above c of 4 creating a higher low.  It might short stroke the lower rail, just kiss it and reverse, or throw under as shown in the model.

If the throwunder occurs, you buy when the count is 5-3-5 and then set stops below the C of E wave that makes up black 4.

Then you watch to make sure the lower rail is broken back up into leaving the wave to work its way through the triangles channel to the upper rail. 

If it kisses or short strokes then the top rail is your confirmation (green circle).  The you can set stops below the e of 4 low. 
 
 and go have fun for the day because wave 5 up will have been confirmed and it should take us into the $7+ range or higher.

If the model is wrong, just get stopped out, step back and find the new count. 


If you don't know how to count waves then IMO you have no business trading something that moves so quickly as TVIX.  You have to be able to anticipate the turns and be sitting there waiting for them like I was today.  Without a working knowledge of EW I do not that that is possible to do.  Legacy TA runs around chasing the herd.  It sees tracks that already occurred to know it is on the right track.  EW is not the same.  EW says "I know that wildebeests must drink and sleep, I know where they just were located and how they normally move between these activities.  If I just observed them sleeping, I will go wait for them at the watering hole and I will be sitting there with my Gatlin gun when they arrive.".  EW is the most misunderstood and little know trading method out there IMO which means it should be very effective against traders using other means.

That is not to say that you cannot benefit from TVIX if your EW skills are not great.  It simply means that you will have to have the guts to sit through wild triangle gyrations like are happening right now, down 15% and then up 4% and then down 12%, etc. 

Once we have 5 large waves up (i.e. black 5 plays out), people should have more confidence in the buy and hold (no matter what volatility occurs) concept.  After 5 waves up you are going to see another 5 which will be a C or a 3rd.  Either one will skyrocket the shares up to $15 or more.

Since my daily hit count is now beginning to skyrocket as word gets around (over 600 hits today for the first time ever), I will repeat for the newcomers that none of this is advice because I am not your paid adviser and I don't give free investing advice.  It is all just my opinion, provided for free at this point and without even any annoying blog ads to infect your PC.  It is offered in the name of financial entertainment, no more, no less.