I have to tell you, the juniors look to be putting in a major capitulation bottom

Look, I know that conventional EW wisdom says that gold is just tracing out A.  There are many good and smart people saying this, including the folks at EWI.  In fact, they think this is only 1 of 5 of A.  But look at this chart of GDXJ.  Keep in mind this is not leveraged with options, this is the junior miner ETF.  Usually when these things fall, they give back about 90% of the peak.  GDXJ is already close to that.  If this is just A then C will have to be  negative number and I just don't think miners are going away.  Gold is already selling for less than the cost of production of many of the juniors.

So that's one thing.  But also, look at the volume:pretty much nothing until the start of this year when that old exponential hockey stick reared its head.  That exponential peak in selling happened during the 3rd sub wave of the current wave, not in the 5th wave.  That makes perfect sense because even though 5ths can go lower or higher than 3rds, it's during the 3rd that the moment of recognition occurs that something is going badly wrong and so everyone heads for the side door at once.  That ridiculous volume suggest to me that this wave is much more important than the conventional wisdom is indicating.

It's not that the price got lower and thus cheaper cheaper shares enabled more volume, either.  Where was all the volume during the last dip to this same level??  It was a shadow of its current self.  I think it's time to consider the possibility that the conventional wisdom is wrong about the current wave count.  I know capitulation volume when I see it!

I'm just now considering this new possibility but what if the dip to $70 was A, the run to $102 was B and everything since then was C?  In this case, that big triangle therefore is not 4 of A but rather 4 of C as depicted below.  It's always risky to bet against EWI but I have to go with the data, not gut feel and that capitulation volume is very telling IMO.  I think I will snap up some small position of JNUG tomorrow for a multi month hold.  $6 was always mentioned by me as a dream trade for this wave.