Market update using the S+P chart: gap down imminent?

The S+P chart looks like it has been set up for a mighty 3rd of 3rd gap down today.  Black 1 retraced into black 2 via an expanded flat.  One might be tempted to try to count the test of the rising support line that occurred on the 8th as wave 1 of the new series but that is actually the B wave of a flat correction.




The S+P 500 retraced its way back up to the 38.2% fib of blue 1, filling a gap that occurred in 3 of 5 of 1 of 3.  So we should be at, or nearly at, blue 2.  Blue 3 will be a 3rd of 3rd.  If the 2009 market reversal is really in as I believe it must be, I have to expect fireworks and cliff diving during this powerful event.  I think this is where the first 500+ point down day for the DJIA must express itself.

This is of course a bold prediction, as bold as trying to call the chart in real time instead of reporting faithfully on events that are in the rear view and thus no longer actionable.  But hey, maybe I will get it right.  Even a broken clock is right twice a day, yeah?