I heard from a good friend the other day this argument and, time limited though I may be today, decided to share some insight from Mish and then provide my charting interpretation (anything can be charted, all of it follows the EW rules).
Here is Mish's insight wherein record corporate buybacks signal a top (as the CXOs rip off the investors by pumping the share price for their own corrupt gain).
Inside his post he has the PE chart that is soooooo very important to anyone who really gets it (which will, looking back on this post from the future, turn out to be precious few). I used his chart and applied the correct wave count to show you why all stocks are going lower. In short, PE CONTRACTION.
The PE bubble of the 2000 melt down was the highest high because that was in fact the end of grand supercycle wave 3. The fact that shares went up following that is only because of an expanded flat correction where the B of 4 wave is allowed to go higher than 5 of 3.
So, we had dot bomb as the real EW count peak. Then we had the dot bomb sell off as A of C of 4 followed by the 2007 peak as the B of C peak. Now we have entered a massive 5 wave downward move that will be C of C. While the nominal share price of B of C was higher than 5 of 3, the PEs were not. This is because the upward pressure moved from PE expansion to credit expansion used to buy shares. During the C wave the collapse will be due to both a PE contraction and a credit contraction. This double whammy catchup move is why it is going to be fast and loud in our faces. It will be the correction that should have occurred after dot bomb but was not allowed to express itself because of fed meddling. So now it is going to express itself anyway but it will be far worse than if ASSHOLES Greenspan and Bernanke had just let the free market clean the mess up in the first place. Of course, the mess could never have occurred in the first place if we had an honest money supply. But we don't and that is the reality of it for now.
As far as I know, I am the first person to make this connection and to provide the model. I suspect there could be others (on a planet of 6-7 billion people) who have this same understanding. But the question is, are they out there sharing it in a way that does not go over the head of someone who understands the basic premise and rules of EW. If you can find them on the web saying these simple things in straightforward terms, please say so with links in the comments because that blog will be worth following for me.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
Armstrongeconomics is a good read. He hasn't claimed anything about P/E contractions but he claims many of the things you do.
Lots of people are saying the same major things as me (or perhaps for these common things, I am saying the same as them...).
These are, IMO, coarse and obvious things to logical thinkers who understand math, history, basic economics, the art of the pump and dump con and of course the ultimate requirement that a fraudulent money supply create havoc and then collapse. Many readers of this blog have already demonstrated that they "get" all of these things.
It is in the fine nuances where the uncommon insight will either be proved or disproved. I think those who get these nuances in advance of them happening are the ones I will probably learn the most from.
Post a Comment