It's now or never for the shorts. Failure to hold this lower resistance line puts the entire decline since Sept 19 in great danger of not being the real first wave down. This same thing happened in late 2007. There were too many hunters with machine guns lined up at the feeding ground and so the herd moved on to a different one. In other words, it looked like the big decline was starting so everyone moved in but the herd had one more upward thrust left in it before the real collapse began. It does not mean it will certainly happen again, only that it might.
In the case of the chart below, if that lower rail cannot hold then I will have to call the ending diagonal a 3rd, the recent move down a 4th and the current move would be the real 5th and final. If that resistance gives way, don't fight it. Just let them run the share back down and pick up more at lower prices. Below that lower rail on the DJIA, TVIX is a hold. Above it it is a sell.
I'm back in @3.34, stops at 3.25.
1 comment:
Thanks, Cap'n... appreciate your intra-session counsel.
Steven B.
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