Picked up some short term puts on Facebook yesterday.

I am generally not a big fan of short term puts.  The risk is just too high and the spreads are ridiculous.  Still, every once in a while it is kind of fun to blow $800 on a lottery ticket.  This print was me getting 100 contracts of the Nov 28 FB 55s @ $0.08.


















The reason I decided to take such a risk is that I think the markets are ready to enter a 3rd wave down and in a real 3rd wave nobody is unaffected, not even the mighty Facebook Ponzi. As you can see, the FB chart is an ending diagonal.  No, it didn't throw over (yet) and it still might (which would kill my $800 bet) but if my count for the broader markets is correct then I really need some hyper leverage short in place to augment my normal leveraged shorting plans.  Did I mention that I think the markets are about to crash?  LOL.

I want to say that most likely FB will not collapse to $55 by Nov 28th.   Thus my options, if held to maturity, will likely expire worthless.  But if the markets move down hard over the next month then yes, FB could be in the mid 60s by then and that should skyrocket the price of those short term puts.  There is always also the wildcard which is that FB scam shares could pull a NFLX and be down 26% in a single day.  If that happens, well, I guess I have my down payment for a new Telsa S because the implied volatility is ~50 on this trade.  That means $800 turns into $40 grand. So this is boom (and then zoom) or bust.

Again, without a wave count that suggests that a 3rd wave down is coming in the broader markets I would never pull this stunt, not even with a measly $800.  Money is money after all.  But sometimes you just have to say what the feck.