Sunpower [SPWR] finally looking very peaky.

Just to prove I don't fall in love with shares, I think now is the time to sell SPWR.  I have only recently turned negative on the shares given how high and how far they have bounced since my initial bottoming call on them in this post.  Yes, the price really was $3.77 back then.  But since then the shares have had 5 very big percentage moving waves up.  Then an 5 smaller waves which broke down through the major trend line and then most recently a move back up to about the 61.8% fib that is back testing the trend line from below. 

I think the breakdown was wave A down, now wave B back up is almost complete (or maybe complete right now).  So the next move should be a hard turn south.  Of course, everyone on the SPWR chat board is talking about buying the dip, shares to the moon, jump on board before train leaves station, etc.  In other words, the kinds of things you hear near peaks.  Soon it will turn into despair because these people are looking at so call fundamentals like market headlines and PS, PE, analyst recommendations, etc.  If those things were good indicators then everyone would be rich.  Not everyone can win this gambling game.  The market does not generate new wealth.  It only redistributes it.

Those who hated SPWR when my models called it a "screaming buy" now love it after it is up more than 9x from the bottom.  "Nah", sez The Captain, "There be too much risk now and nary enough reward. The waves should set your course on the economic ocean and the wave pattern for SPWR tell me that the tide is receding.  A falling tide sinks all boats".  My target price for this pullback is nearabouts $20-$21.  As usual, time will tell.  In this case we will likely know very quickly.