Saturday, January 11, 2014

How much longer before the banking sector turns down?

The following graph is for FAS, the triple leverage financial sector ETF.  Right now I see a large 5th wave in progress (on the left) which is looking like an ending diagonal.  Maybe it will pop some more into a big throwover that could possibly be as much as 10%.  But I think the odds do not favor that given the shape of the current wave that is being formed.  It is not a sideways triangle like you would expect for the penultimate wave but rather a tiny little ending diagonal in progress.  It seems like it has 1-3 days left in it before it turns down.  In fact, it has 2 likely turning points.  One of them would be mid channel, the second would be top of channel which could include a small throwover.

I see tech, banking, and several other sectors showing some very toppy looking behavior.  There are 2 ways to play this.  First, the safe way is to just short FAS.  These funds are like buying options in that they lose value with time because, of course, they are synthetic and they use options and their cousins, derivatives, to gain the leverage.  The more aggressive way to play is via FAZ, the inverse triple banking sector.  Of course you can also short the banks individually as their charts roll over but these etfs are pretty convenient and keep trading costs low should you get stopped out.  We should know early next week whether this chart model is right or wrong.


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