Silver might need 1 more capitulation down draft before bottoming.

Metals have been eluding me in terms of model correctness.  The were down when stocks were up and now they are not showing strength even when stocks are weak.  If silver, for example, does not bounce real soon now and with serious gusto, it is in danger of confirming that one last downdraft will be needed in order to finish off the multiyear bear market in metals.  When that happens, I expect a rapid rebound as investors rush into the metals as a safe haven.  I have a small amount of USLV right now and, as posted earlier, I will add significantly to it on the technical turning points.

If silver breaks the support line at the location indicated by the red circle, expect pain all the way down to the blue circle which represents the throw under for an ending diagonal.  If that is followed by a rapid move up through the upper resistance line of the channel as shown in orange then metals will likely be confirmed to be in a new bull market. If this happens then it will result in a very bullish inclining double bottom which will support another run back up to $50 or higher.

Alternatively, if this support line does hold then it could lead to several years of sideways action bouncing between current levels and ~$23.  As usual, the long term winners here will be those that take advantage of depressed prices to build a position in the physical bullion, preferably 1 ozt coins such as Austrian Philharmonics, Canadian Maple Leafs, etc.  I would avoid coins that are issued by someone other than a government mint simply because they lack the recognition factor of government minted coins.  IF there was a crisis and someone wanted to trade you their non-name "silver rounds" for your goods and labor, would you make the trade if the coin was something you never saw before?  I personally want the government stamp that says ".999 pure 1 0zt".  Not that silver rounds are bad.  Lots of people buy them.  But they are only a few cents cheaper and the government mint stamp is more than worth that to me.