Before the crash of 2008, Fleckenstein was huge bear. Then in 2009 he closed his bear fund and distributed the profits (right at the peak of beardom). Now he is out talking stocks down again. This should be a wake up call for anyone who is long this market because Fleck has already proven that he is looking at the herd from the outside, not just running with it blinded to the larger picture like most stock analysts tend to be.
Instead of talking about how great earnings are, Fleck is wondering why anyone would pay a PE at the high end of the historical scale in a market that is clearly fed pumped. He mentions an easy 30% downside and I think he is right. That is easily the next pullback. It could be 50% or even 61.8%. It could even be the end of the market mania at which time I expect it to go well below 1000 (manias end up below where they started just like the Japanese Nikkei 200 did).
Maybe I'm pointing to Fleck because he agrees with my topping call. But maybe it is simply out of respect for someone who already showed the wisdom to shut down his very livelihood before he gave up all of his hard won profits. To me, that makes him the smartest guy in the room. Listen to the smart guys if you want to get smarter.
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