In this post on Jan 20th I wrote that fear was coming to the markets. Turns out this was not far wrong this time. Compare my model in that post to the recent action shown in the XIV weekly chart below. After that 5th wave throwover of the expanding triangle, we got a dramatic breakdown. We need to see some follow through in order to confirm it but this is a bad sign for the stock markets and likely the bottom for the reverse XIV which is the VXX. Don't think VXX is a bad buy just because it popped. Buy the dip! The 3rd wave will likely make the 3rd wave look puny.
Hear me now and believe me later: a RIDICULOUS amount of overconfidence has been built into the financial markets. An extreme amount of confidence exists in the Bernanke put. It is all totally misplaced!! Bernanke is a con man and a damned liar. The whole system is corrupt to the core. I wish more people were reading my blog. I wish I could help more people. Oh well, some people don't really want to be helped because they don't think they need it. My models strongly suggest that this is going to change in the next 5 years.
5 comments:
Captain,
Great to see your updates. I agree that more folks should be paying attention to your blog. Most folks are content to do nothing, and cross their fingers and hope for the best.
In my anecdotal experience, few people read your blog and other similar ones because most are still suspending disbelief in the system and in its accomplice media. The alternative is the harsh reality of a scam and willing patsies. It's quite unfortunate, because it does not bode well for when the day of reckoning comes, which will likely unleash a lot of resentment and anger with a vengeance. It doesn't have to be thus, if only people would be willing to understand what's happening, instead of wishing really, really hard that what their guts tell them were not true.
Hi Chance,
Thanks for your comment. Herding nature of people cannot be changed. It is hard wired into our brains. Everyone already forgot the first shot across the bow in 2007/ 2008. This collapse is going to be one for the books IMO.
Hey Augustine,
Do I really need to respond to your comment? Of course not! You are not in need of my blog or my comments. You absolutely "get it" already and have gotten it long before I began blogging. So I'm just here to say "hi" from Kunshan where I have been working this past week. Ni hao ma.
Captain,
I'm with you on your VXX and FAZ plays. I'm emotionless when it comes to equities with the exception of ones like FAZ. I can't help enjoying making a little funny money off of those jackals.
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