Miners leading the coming metals bottoming.

I've been on metals bottoming watch for months while they went kind of sideways.  I think that sideways movement was a 4th wave.  The big move down in silver today looks like it could be all or part of the final 5th wave down of an expanding triangle.  This could be the end of 1 of 5 down or it could be all of the 5th wave.  In any case, when it bounces, be wary of the bounce being only wave 2 up while at the same time respecting the fact that it could be wave 1 up of the new bull market in metals which is absolutely going to start in 1H2014.

Below is modeled the case where this recent sell off was actually the bottom.  The reason this is a real consideration is the miners are rallying.  They often do so before the metal bottoms but they cannot sustain any rally without the metal bouncing up to support them.

No matter if this is the bottom for metals or not, look for a good rally in metals if this expanding triangle is confirmed by the break out of this throw under back into the channel.  That will, at the very least, be a short term buy signal.  Then you have to play it day by day until the new bull market in metals confirms itself.  Because of the state of the miners, I give it 70% chance that this throw under is a lasting bottom.  The easy trade here is to buy at the end of the day which will hopefully coincide with the low of the day. Then set tight stops of 2% for the following AM, especially if the wave count looks complete on the down side.  Then just go about your business knowing that if the model is wrong then you will get stopped out for very little loss but if the model is right then you will enjoy massive short term gains.