Golden Winter ending: is that a double bottom forming in GLD?

Well, it sure looks like one to me and I can make a valid wave count out of it that shows that late June was the 3rd wave then a-b-c into the 4th wave and now 5 waves down into an ending diagonal for the 5th and final wave.  While I would like to see rising volume confirm this model, it's becoming increasingly likely that we are seeing a significant bottom forming here.  If fact, the start of a large 3rd wave up may already have begun.  Of course, the trigger for rethinking this would be a new low.  But I don't think that will happen.  I think there will be a pullback to $118ish and then a gap up 3rd wave of small degree.  That breakout, however, should tell people that the golden winter is ending.

• If this ends the pullback from the $1800 high with that high being considered a 3rd wave, then this is very close to the 61.8 fib.
• If, however, the pullback is the a-b-c from the $1800 high being considered a 5th wave then this is a much more bullish 50% fib retracement.
• Both of these retracement levels were suggested by my early 2013 landing points for the expected pullback.

I can make the case either way (3 waves up complete or 5 waves up complete).  The last big rally left some highly unusual, although not illegal artifacts in the wave count which is why that run could be counted as either 3 or 5 waves up.  I'm sure the intent was to confuse and befuddle the market.  Not as a conspiracy theory by a few at the top, mind you, but rather as a school of fish will all turn in unison in a way that the herd collectively thinks will best befuddle their attackers.

Normally, a pullback this big would be considered to be the result of a 5 wave move up but these are not normal times, thus the uncertainty.  The global economic system has not gotten any better despite record stimulus.  Greece and Spain still have structural unemployment of more than 25% each - worse than the US great depression.  The US government is a damned liar about the unemployment rate in the US and, despite a recent report of supposedly 6.7% upbeat unemployment figure, PBS.ORG called it a "Perverse and Chilly jobs report". 

When a major shill for the liberal political establishment makes statements like this then you know things are worse than anyone is letting on.  Yes I know they got the "perverse" term from a Financial Times article but there are plenty of negative things said by the more conservative media outlets which are simply ignored by PBS on a regular basis.  The fact that they made a point of reporting negative news this time tells me the mood of the herd is darkening.  Perverse and Chilly indeed.


No problems have been fixed in the US or abroad and it is completely obvious to me that the global monetary system cannot be saved at this point.  It will be of value to many people to review my update of Gordon Long's so called Implode-o-meter (I call it the scam cycle indicator).   The US might be the illuminated eye at the top of the Ponzi pyramid but with all of the patsies that the US is standing on top of teetering into collapse, how can anyone expect the US to be unscathed by it?  France is now attacking US multinationals for basically being too cost effective and efficient under the pretext that their activities are hurting French culture. 

I guess we are supposed to believe that French people don't like to receive good value for their money.  With higher prices there can only be one outcome: less book purchases.  I guess that reading less books is good for French people.  Yeah right.  This is protectionism pure and simple and it is what is going to crash a lot of US multinationals.  Remember how these guys got big: international expansion.  Now that they are international they have international cost structures.  But if protectionism hits them in the wallet, revenues go down while costs remain constant.  That which helped them get big is going to help them come back down. 

Think it's impossible? Look what happened to the Chinese solar industry when the US slapped tariffs on them: 3/4 of the existing manufacturers were recently handed a death sentence by the Chinese government by cutting off their credit in order to save the top 25%.  They would not have done this if US dollars were allowed to buy from all of their manufacturers but the US figures that protecting First Solar and Sunpower is more important than low solar panel prices for US consumers.  It was an early example of economic protectionism. 

The next step in this sequence is the arrival of widespread nationalism.  It has already popped its head up in various places overseas (France especially) but I do not see it as a widespread propaganda program just yet.  But it will come, just like it always does when the credit Ponzi goes bust.  People will be told to buy from their own country's producers because it is patriotic, blah blah blah.  The people should take one for the fvcking gipper and all that.  The next step after that is often war.   Please don't get fooled into supporting any kind of war.  They are always fought so that the politicians can remain in power when most of them should in fact be kicked in the face and left on the roadside for supporting boom and bust socioeconomics.