Monday, January 20, 2014

I will be buying TRX on the dip to ~$1.90

I want some exposure to a couple of small cap metals explorers for the coming recovery in gold and silver.  These guys have gotten the piss beaten out of them by the markets.  I like to buy when there is blood in the streets and the miners are covered in the red stuff.  One stock I have been watching is Tanzanian Resources LTD. 

There are several reasons that I like it.  First off, it's run by Jim Sinclair, a man who I perceive to be an honest and good truth teller whose words I have been following for some time.  I recall when gold was at $900 and he was saying next stop $1650.  I was pretty new to charting back then but I had been buying gold already and I recall saying "from his mouth to God's ear".  The odds of it happening seemed pretty faint at the time but gold did indeed hit and surpass his first target.  In addition, Jim has been talking about cost push inflation for a long time and I do see it happening everywhere.  Cost push inflation IS coming from in every area from Mickey D workers who think they should get a 100% pay raise to $15 per hour to engineers and other workers in Taipei (which is where I am currently writing this blog post).

Next, at this price the shares are like a long term non-expiring option.  Third, a rising metals market will float all boats and those who took the biggest beatings will see the biggest percentage jumps off the bottom. 

But mostly, I like the chart.  I sent email to Jim Sinclair with CC: Dan Norcini (his TA guru) on 1-14-2014, the topic of which was, for the first time ever, the share price of his company.  I wrote:



Hey Guys,
Just thought you might be interested in the TA of a 3rd party.  My Elliott wave model indicates that we just likely put in a major bottom for the metals.  As you know, the miners will move up hugely in percentage terms relative to the metals.  Be of good cheer because the con game is ending rapidly.  Precious metals will be treated not as a commodity like most people think, but as money (a store of value) in a declining overall stock market.


Here is the graph that I included in that email:

As expected, the shares broke out strongly as seen in the current chart below.  The 2nd (a-b-c back down) from the coming 5th wave peak (5 of 1) is likely to test the top of the ending diagonal above (or nearly so).  When it does that AND HOLDS (which I think it will), then Katy bar the door because the next wave up will be a 3rd wave which should be full of shock and awe for those who have been shorting these shares.  About 5% of this thinly traded stock have been shorted and that is a short ratio (days to cover of 13).  The shorts will be running for cover when the 3rd wave up begins.  My current target price for these shares is $5 as a first step but I think $7.50 or better is in the cards.

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