I thought the prior ending diagonal for Google was the 5th wave up. All looked good for my June puts recently when the shares took a 90 point dive. But since then there has been a dramatic rebound while the broader markets tanked. These are just the risks of interpreting the chart in real time instead of waiting for confirmation.
As you can see from the model below, 5 waves have occurred to form a higher high than 3. The two most likely events going forward are that:
Scenario 1: This is just 1 of 5 up having completed. A pull back will occur, perhaps back to 1100, where a double bottom will form into wave 2 down. If a lower low cannot be had, this will set the shares up for wave 3 up, 4 down and finally 5 up. After that I think there is no room left to run and we will see a dramatic down draft in that case which will send panic into GOOG shareholders.
Scenario 2: These recent, broader market defying 5 waves up just formed an ending diagonal with a throw over that led to a higher high. This new high just kissed and slightly surpassed the big 1-3 line. Thus, even though this 5th wave is not as large as the 1st wave which ran from Oct 9th-24th of 2013, it is an ending diagonal and I think that trumps the desire to see 1 and 5 of equal length when 3 is the extended wave (as it was this time).
I think scenario 2 will probably be chosen by the market. Thus I will be buying another set of the June 840 puts at the open on Monday. Hopefully the shares don't gap down at the open since that will bump the options prices up.
This recent bounce in GOOG shares has not dissuaded me from my belief that GOOG is about to roll over. Quite the contrary. It is giving me the ability to dollar cost average into a position. These 840s will be 3-10 baggers before they expire IMO.
If the market needs news to really get things moving, today that news came for GOOG: the company is going to split the shares. Normally this is thought of as a bullish thing as lower priced shares are supposedly easier for smaller players to participate in. Of course, after the split the shares will still be over $500 each so I'm not sure how good that logic is but it's at least something to say to the herd.
But in this case, the split is a sneaky rip off that is absolutely going to piss off big institutional investors because anyone accepting the split also has to accept an effect massive reduction in voting rights. That doesn't matter to Joe Sixpack but it certainly matters to institutional investors who can see it as a loss of say in their investment should they believe that changes need to be made. And when are changes normally requested? Yeah, when the shares go down. In other words, I read this as the powers at GOOG making sure they don't get punished or pushed around in the media by big shareholders like Carl Icahn is doing to Apple. Google's message to institutional shareholders is clear: "Buy the shares if you want to but don't try to tell us how to run things if the markets turn down. And to be sure you don't try, we are relieving you of most of your voting rights as part of the share split.".
Any institutional investor with a brain will run away screaming from that deal. Splitting the shares don't add value to the company, it is just a PR stunt. But removing voting rights absolutely makes the shares worth less to large investors than shares which do have voting rights. Add the news and the chart together and I think it leads to major GOOG share swoon real soon now.
Friday, January 31, 2014
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