Metals update: SLV will either break out or break down.

I have not been talking about metals much lately because the action has not been compelling.  The metals are sort of stuck in no man's land trying to decide if they are a commodity or money.  Of course they are money but the herd needs time to wake up to the fact.  Long term holders of the physical simply cannot go wrong. 

It really comes down to this: either have a retirement account denominated in fake paper assets which I cannot access if the government does not allow me to and which they can steal from me at the stroke of a pen from someone who is avoiding congress with executive orders OR a retirement account denominated in metals that have never gone bankrupt before, which I own in my own physical possession and which will require a running gun battle with me before anyone pries it from my hands.  Yeah, I vote on me.  The system is designed to screw people so smart people will get out of the system.

In the short term, however, metals are not creating impulsive charts.  The sideways movement could either be a rounding bottom where the herd take time to have it mind changed or it could be a 4th wave.  If a 4th then expect a 5th wave down.  If a 5th wave occurs, I think it could be an extended 5th because the 1st and 3rd waves are the same length.  One of the 3 impulsive subwaves is often extended.  So if a 5th wave is coming, it could be extended.

Personally, I hope to see it because these short term moves mean nothing toward my retirement account value.  I have a small amount of USLV which is down right now but more than offset by my VXX and FAZ and GOOG puts.  I didn't buy more because the chart is just not clear.  But I'm beginning to think there will be one more big downdraft that happens along with stocks when the 3rd wave down in stocks happens.  At some point I think metals will decouple from the markets (i.e. get treated as money rather than as a commodity).  But for the short term, if we get a big 5th wave down on high volume that is a buy buy buy signal, not a sign to panic and flee.  I will be moving profits into USLV if that happens.  Of course, these are gut feelings.   The charts will, at the end of the day, guide my gambling moves.