Tuesday, June 26, 2018

Trump vs. Harley - who will win? [HOG]

Harley Davidson is throwing Trump's trade war back into his face in an open challenge to his ability to succeed at his goals.  Whereas Trump is trying to raise the prices of imports in order to make overly expensive American made products look more attractive and thus support American jobs, Harley is saying it will move manufacturing operations overseas in order to make up for the additional costs to its business which will come with the tariffs.

Liberal talking heads on yahoo finance are predicting that Trump will lose this battle.  Of course they are shooting from the hip.  They have nothing but their gut feelings to go by.  But I think Trump is in a better position than Yahoo fiance talking heads understand.  In the video at the link above, Yahoo people defend Harley saying that they have to do what's in the best interest of their shareholders.  So of course they have to move overseas to get cheaper manufacturing costs no matter what Trump says.

Yes, it sounds great, it sounds like logic.  Until you look at the stock chart and then do the Elliott wave analysis on it.  Big money is selling the shares and the price is looking motive to the downside.  If this goes 5 down from the top like I think it will to put in purple 5 below and then rallies in 3 waves to that horizontal triangle marked purple 4, the odds will then greatly support another huge percentage move to the downside that will make Harley management squeal like a stuck pig.  Their shareholders will be calling them directly and asking them what the Fuck do they think they are doing taking on that hard head Trump in this way.  They will be told to swallow their pride and walk back their threats and plans to offshore those American jobs.  And when they do people on Yahoo will be amazed.  They will not believe their eyes.  When the dust settles, Trump will be standing on the top of the hill and daring anyone else who thinks they want to get froggy to jump up and push him off that hill.

The trouble with confronting a bully is that if he pounds your face in then his reputation grows.  Now please understand, I don't like Trump's tariffs.  All it really amounts to is cost push inflation for all of us.  I want to consume cheap high quality Chinese goods until I die.  As for Trump's demeanor and attitude, who cares what I think or what you think?  It's pointless to debate his style, only his successes and failures toward running his agenda matter.  So none of that is the point.  The point is that the Elliott wave count of Harley's stock price is telling me that the odds are rising rapidly that the hog is going to get slaughtered and turned into bacon.  And I say this even as Yahoo hosts chuckle at Trump's efforts at pushing around a big name public company.

I guess we'll just have to see who is right but my analysis method is not based on gut feel.  I have a model to go by.  It it goes wrong I will know right away.  Look at the chart below.  Anything other than that and something is likely wrong with my model.


Augustine said...

I think that you're wrong on Harley surviving. This move is more than the hogs affordable for Europeans, but also for Americans, since the tariffs on imported aluminum and steel make them more expensive for Americans. Yet, I agree that Trump will still come out on top, as everything is about perceptions of the American boobs.

The Captain said...

Who said anything about harley not surviving? My only opinion expressed was that they would lose this standoff with Trump and eventually back down on their threats to offshore production. And the reason they would do so IMVHO would be that the shareholder value they so rabid seek to gain would be evaporating in the form of a collapsing stock price. It would set Trump up to say that the reason for the decline is harley turning its back on America (forget the fact that it probably would have happened anyhow if you look at the wave count).

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