Perhaps the biggest crash alarm I have ever seen on Bitcoin...

When people get wildly emotional about a financial asset trouble is not far away.  Just read the drivel that counts as "news" on Yahoo finance. 

• "Owning bitcoin is so much damn fun".
• "If the party never ends, it doesn’t really matter if you show up late."
• "there have been a lot of nauseating declines, and every one of them has been followed, eventually, by a rebound to new highs. This could go on for a while."
• "even if bitcoin collapses and I lose everything, it will have been a delightful and rewarding experience"

How does such emotional, useless, pointless drivel become a link on Yahoo finance?  What a freaking joke.  Smart people are saying bitcoin is a fraud but Mark and Patsy think it is "fun" to own.

Just unbelievable.  This is how wacky-positive, kan't-lose nothing can go wrong the investor mood is right now.  The mood is at all time highs.  All I know is that all the stocks in the market are actually worthless regardless of their current dollar price and at some point those who have bought into the stock con will rue the day they ever heard of the stock market.

What are intangible assets really worth?

Its been a very busy time for me with vacation back to back to two business trips so my legacy blog has suffered as a result.  This will last another week before I can really get back to posting here. 

I did see one story that I wanted to comment quickly on.  My position on paper assets has been made clear over and over again throughout the years which is that all of them are just paper claims on something that may or may not be real.  But even if that something is real, the claim is basically worthless until tendered.  This is true regardless of the asset type or who issues it (dollars, stocks, bonds, cereal box tops, green stamps, etc.).  All paper assets and digital assets are an illusion.  When then bottom drops out, Mark and Patsy, who both think very highly of their own "it's different this time" opinions (despite not having done even a fraction of the research and writing that I have done on these matters) will stop rolling their eyes at me and instead wish they had listened.

Before a big earthquake we often get smaller quakes. In the fake money realm there was recently an incident where the 2nd largest cryptocurrency, Etherium, plummeted from over $300 down to less than $1 in single day before recovering just as quickly.  Even more recently we are seeing that two of the largest Bitcoin exchanges crashed at the same time causing difficulty for people trying to sell.  These are all signs of a very unstable public which doesn't know what is up and what is down.  Its got to be some kind of mass brainwashing but I'm telling you right now it will end badly.

If you have a paper claim on something, you have in fact nothing until that claim is redeemed and you receive the physical item that the claim entitles you to.  Your accounting entry means nothing in a crisis.

There is in fact nothing new under the sun except the history you don't know.

Wow, the stars just keep falling out of the sky.

Louis CK has been one of the most successful and sought after stand up comics of the past decade.  But now the liberal tide has gone out and he has been caught skinny dipping.  Like many Hollywood liberals, CK is a sexual deviant according the the news on what he has been accused of doing.  I don't care to repeat it here because its not important to my point. 

What is important is what is happening and the speed at which it is unfolding is truly historic.  Folks, step back and think about the level of iconoclasm that is taking place globally.  First we saw the Duck Dynasty win out over liberal A+E and I took that as a major sign of things to come and also predicted that the events would speed up exponentially in time and in important.  Then, also as I predicted, Hillary lost and it wasn't even close.  Then Cosby got busted for rape and now a huge number of liberal Hollywood perverts, some with very big names and star power are going down in flames.  Add to that the current historic political eruption as Saudi royal family are being rounded up for corruption like they were redneck bar room drunks.  Their homes are being raided and they are being led off in cuffs.

Folks, these are not small deals.  They are freaking huge.  They are Earth shattering.  Nobody in the world is not seeing this and it is sending a huge 3rd wave message to the herd: your past sins will leap up out of the closet and take you down in an eye blink.  Rampant corruption and illegal behavior is no longer going to be protected by the establishment. The herd wants heads to roll and heads are freaking rolling.

This is a warning that goes well past the things we can see today.  This is the beginning of the unraveling of major US conspiracies including, as I have always said it would during the end times of the global debt Ponzi, the truth about what really happened during 9-11.  Even the recent Vegas shooting is now being looked at by many in the media like something is wrong with the official story and a very, very important question is now being asked of the police: are you complicit or just incompetent?  This is also huge because it used to be that someone would accuse the cops of being corrupt and their leadership would deny it and so the media would say, well I guess there's your answer.  But those days are over.  The hard questions are being asked now.  As I said, expect a massive return and resurgence of investigative reporting.  The herd wants to hear true dirt, not fake news, not happy talk, but true and proven corruption stories.  It wants to observe the prosecution and punishment that goes along with it.  Conservatives are tired of being Mr. Nice Guy and then apparently falling behind because they would join into the lie-cheat-steal-pedo trend of liberals. 

It's like the next door neighbor who has a shit job and who is not very smart but he lives in a nice house with a big mortgage.  The neighbor puts in a big pool on credit.  The neighbor drives a nice car that he can barely make the monthly payment on and he parties all the time on his credit card.  It can be very difficult for conservative savers to watch all this going down and then look in the mirror each day and see themselves getting older and weaker without having all the fun that they could have had if they would just set aside their moral principles and join the liberals.  So what we are now seeing is the revenge of the conservatives.  We are seeing people finally get justice for their acts.  This is going to spread to all aspects of society.  Eventually it will collapse the stock market as well.  The gamblers are all going down in a fiery ball and those who have been avoid the corrupt markets will be watching it with satisfaction.

Etrade is "too busy" to let me enter more market shorting orders.

I'm building a short position against the markets right now.  I suspect I am not the only one.  But what I didn't expect was for Etrade's crap-ass web site to tell me that its too BUSY to take my orders.  Oh, when you think of it again please do check back with us and maybe we will have our heads out of our collective asses by then.

Good thing I also have a TDAmeritrade account because if left to rely on shitty ass Etrade this is what I guess I can expect.  I do find the timing of this business very interesting as this is the first time I have ever in my life seen it from Etrade.

A$$hole Biden acts like the presidency was his for the taking.

Here is an amusing story where Biden says "I regret that I am not president".  The implication is that if he had just decided to put the country above the love of his family that he would have won the presidency.

First let me make something clear: Biden is an obvious elitist pedo.  Everyone knows it.  Look at his hands on the children and look at the reactions of those involved.  What must they have been thinking to make those faces?  Even the children pulled away from his groping.  What would you be thinking if "Stranger Danger" creepo Biden was left alone in a room with your children?

Biden was never going to win the presidency.  The herd could not put up with more hyper liberalism.  I can say this with authority because I was one of the very, very few who were convinced early on that Hillary could not possibly win and stated it clearly.  When others were fearful, I was not.  This is a matter of public record and it should serve to give my views weight that not every member of the herd can claim right to.  No I'm sorry, not everyone's opinions and views are correct or right minded despite the fact that everyone believes their opinion is just as valid as everyone else's (as if such a thing were a human right, etc.).  It's not.  Respect for one's views must be earned and the greatest respect is historically awarded to those whose views initially seem so impossible to happen yet in fact things play out as predicted.  This is not mean as a brag but rather as plain talk about facts of life.  Liberals will be offended by it but conservatives will say, "yeah, that's just common sense if you think about it".

Biden is a flaming liberal pedophile a$$hole.  He had no chance of winning in 2016 and his weak posturing of late to position himself for a 2020 run will also fall flat.

Trump is hysterical to watch in all of his economic ignorance.

Trump says things that swing wildly from day to day and even hour to hour.  This is not opinion it is fact.  Never has there been a president who has backtracked so many times.  This is different than lying.  Obama and Bush and Clinton were just look you straight in the eye liars.  Bold faced liars all.  That is different than Trump. Trump sees that something is going on but has no idea of the underlying economics.  Let me give you a great example. ABC News reports today on Trump's comments coming out of China.  In the past Trump declared China to be currency manipulators, economic terrorists, etc.  But now he is saying that we should not blame China and that America is to fault.  It hardly gets more wishy washy than this when it comes to flip flopping between extreme behaviors.

So let's just calm down and understand what is really going on. 

The world runs on fake money called fiat currency and fractional reserve banking.  It is literally a confidence game started in the early 1900s with the creation of the Federal Reserve and the associated New World Order where the US would effectively enslave the rest of the planet.  What was different about this iteration of slavery is that the slaves had to agree to it!  So it was not slavery that was strictly enforced at gun point (even though a breakdown of the system is likely to lead to WW3) but it was slavery nonetheless.

What happened is that in 1945 the US conned the rest of the world into using the dollar as the global reserve currency.  In other words, the dollar became world money for all intents and purposes.  That meant that most business was transacted in dollars and that meant people outside the USA had to hold dollars.  While they were doing this, the US government was working with the federal reserve bank to inflate the currency (i.e. water it down) with a target of 2% annually.  In this way the USA could tax the rest of world's commerce at 2% without doing a damned thing to earn it.  Why would people pay this?  In many cases it was because of global economic growth fueled by expanding global debt.  So the 2% tax was a small price to pay to be part of the debt Ponzi.  In other cases people simply didn't know what was really going on.

When Nixon approached China in 1972 he had just de-linked the dollar from gold and it threatened to make the dollar irrelevant on the global stage.  This is why Nixon decided to trade with China.  It would give the dollar new life.  China had this huge but backwards workforce and the US had lots of tech to share.  The deal was that the US would share tech if China would do the work of manufacturing stuff.  China had so many people that the law of supply and demand required them to work in this new industry for low rates. 

So Trump wonders why jobs left for China.  The answer is simple: slaves work for less money than non slaves.  But Trump is too economically unaware to realize that this is not a bad thing.  If someone comes to me and says they want to maintain my house doing all the dirty heavy dangerous grunt labor thus leaving me free to either have leisure time or to go do better work that pays more, should I be angry that the slave is relieving me of work??  OF COURSE NOT!  Only a damned fool would complain about someone taking care of their needs at very low cost.  Does it mean I need to go do something more value added than cutting the lawn and trimming the hedges?  Sure.  But how hard is that?  Not very.  So this whole idea that China is ripping us off is ridiculous.

The truth is that China and others in the world work hard to produce goods which they send to us in physical containers.  In return we send them paper dollars which are promises to ship physical goods back to them some time in the future.  But that is never going to happen because we don't have the manufacturing capability to do it.  What will happen is that we will default either outright or by massive inflation and then the world will lose confidence in the US as the world leader.  China will rightfully get its turn at the helm.

Why rightfully?  Doesn't intrinsic American Exceptionalism mean that we automatically have G-D given rights to rule the planet forever?  Well, no.  The global herd will follow whoever provides more recognized value and right now the US provides precious little value relative to our consumption.  That number is quantifiable; it's called a trade deficit.

China has done and continues to do good for the world by providing us a high quality of life at a low cost.  That is what life is about, not stupid political ideologies which are never anything more than marketing stories to keep this con man or that in power.  At the end of the day humans are on this planet to consume, produce, grow, learn, enjoy, etc.  These are the important elements of humanity.  If someone can consume a lot that is produced by someone else without having to reciprocate then, while unsustainable since nobody is going to be our slave forever, it is certainly a very good time to live.  It's like being royalty and having willing subjects.  The last thing we should be doing is insulting or accusing them.  We will learn this the hard way once they stop accepting our fake green currency in return for their real goods that were produced by real labor.

This is what news articles look like in an increasingly conservative herd mood swing.

When you think about all the stories that could be posted about rock stars for herd consumption, conservative behavior is not generally been at the top of the list.  When the herd was embracing massive liberalism, however, the stories that you would read showed rockers in a liberal light: cheating on their spouses, tearing up hotel rooms, sex drugs and rock and roll for everyone.

It's not the media's fault really.  They put out stories and then gauge the reactions. If the story is well read and well liked and often quoted you can bet that we will see more of same.  Why?  Because these reactions indicate that the herd likes what it is seeing and if you want to be successful in retail, you sell what the customer is buying.

So it might seem strange to some that a radical change in story lines is now happening.  You can see it at places like Washington Post where their stories are moving away from the left and now toward the center.  In 10 years it will be almost unrecognizable as the liberal rag that it has been over many years past.

Going forward you should expect to see a lot more stories discuss the conservative side of all things.  Today's evidence point is this story about a famous rocker from Nirvana and Foo Fighters.  The story uplifts and glorifies a very conservative viewpoint and real life style of a famous music idol.  Dave G comes off as humble and unassuming not in your face let's rock this place.  He sounds like the guy next door.  There is a reason for this: the herd wants to move conservative.  I predicted it would happen and now it is happening.  It is a generational move.  The liberals have peaked for this cycle and now the pendulum swings to the right (and all the goes with it).

[SHLD] udpate

Here's what my Elliott wave model says happen next:

I've shown the power of Elliott waves for market timing stock moves many times in this blog.  The last time I did this for Sears Holdings can be read here.  I have not posted anything further in my public blog about Sears since then but I have been keeping my paid subscribers up to date with the wave model for these shares.  Stock movements are an odds based affair.  Anyone who claims to absolutely know what the share will do next is a liar.

But there is a difference between not knowing for 100% sure and being 100% clueless.  It's called odds folks and they completely apply to the form of mass gambling known as stock markets.  Odds have to be based on something.  Cramer will state loudly that a stock is going up because he likes the CEO.  This of course is just babble.  Go to Vegas and see if any of the professional odds makers will give you odds on that.  They will laugh and spit up in their drink at the very thought of it.  Why?  Because it is not based on something that can be tested for veracity.

Elliott waves on the other hand provide odds based future chart predictions based on the hard data of what has already happened.  Yes folks, the past does influence the future in a very meaningful way.  So while an Elliott wave model may not turn out to be correct (and in fact turn out to be wrong about 30% of the time) you know immediately that this is the case.  If the model gives you a setup then you buy with the expectation that something specific will happen within a very tight tolerance.  If it doesn't happen, you bail out.  You don't hang on and ride the slope of hope into the gutter.

Elliott wave based trading is thus as close to scientific process as you can get for stock trading.  The waves create a testable hypothesis which has an expected outcome.  You place a bet on that outcome.  Then you test to see if the model breaks and if so you take your bet back off the table.  Its as simple as that once you see the wave count in front of you.

My subscribers have seen the low level wave count model which goes with this high level model shown above.  If you want to know the details as well, please consider subscribing to my monthly service.  I cover many different areas of the stock market all for one low monthly price of $39.95 (click the subscribe tab above for payment instructions).  If you just want to go month by month because you hate recurring anything then it's $54.95 (click the big picture with this price on it in the right panel above).  I only take PayPal which means I never have your credit card data and you can stop the service at anytime without reason.  You are in control of your subscription, not me.

Consider giving it a try once you see how this Sears model plays out.