Thursday, November 9, 2017

[SHLD] udpate

Here's what my Elliott wave model says happen next:

I've shown the power of Elliott waves for market timing stock moves many times in this blog.  The last time I did this for Sears Holdings can be read here.  I have not posted anything further in my public blog about Sears since then but I have been keeping my paid subscribers up to date with the wave model for these shares.  Stock movements are an odds based affair.  Anyone who claims to absolutely know what the share will do next is a liar.

But there is a difference between not knowing for 100% sure and being 100% clueless.  It's called odds folks and they completely apply to the form of mass gambling known as stock markets.  Odds have to be based on something.  Cramer will state loudly that a stock is going up because he likes the CEO.  This of course is just babble.  Go to Vegas and see if any of the professional odds makers will give you odds on that.  They will laugh and spit up in their drink at the very thought of it.  Why?  Because it is not based on something that can be tested for veracity.

Elliott waves on the other hand provide odds based future chart predictions based on the hard data of what has already happened.  Yes folks, the past does influence the future in a very meaningful way.  So while an Elliott wave model may not turn out to be correct (and in fact turn out to be wrong about 30% of the time) you know immediately that this is the case.  If the model gives you a setup then you buy with the expectation that something specific will happen within a very tight tolerance.  If it doesn't happen, you bail out.  You don't hang on and ride the slope of hope into the gutter.

Elliott wave based trading is thus as close to scientific process as you can get for stock trading.  The waves create a testable hypothesis which has an expected outcome.  You place a bet on that outcome.  Then you test to see if the model breaks and if so you take your bet back off the table.  Its as simple as that once you see the wave count in front of you.

My subscribers have seen the low level wave count model which goes with this high level model shown above.  If you want to know the details as well, please consider subscribing to my monthly service.  I cover many different areas of the stock market all for one low monthly price of $39.95 (click the subscribe tab above for payment instructions).  If you just want to go month by month because you hate recurring anything then it's $54.95 (click the big picture with this price on it in the right panel above).  I only take PayPal which means I never have your credit card data and you can stop the service at anytime without reason.  You are in control of your subscription, not me.

Consider giving it a try once you see how this Sears model plays out.

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