[ENPH] update

At the backlink I had reaffirmed my model view that $1.60 was the bottom.




Current snapshot suggests that was a nice short term call but that this big move up today still has a threat model which counts as a retracement.  A fall below $2.50 will trigger my stops.  Why are my stops so lose?  Simply because this is a volatile stock and the count still contains questions at this small of a scale.  I would probably be less lenient had I not modeled a bottom of $1.60 well in advance of it happening and then bought that bottom.  Nonbelievers in the wave principle might learn something by starting with today's post and the clicking a few backlinks to get to that original post and then following the thought process as I followed this wounded bird down.

 

On the larger scale chart however, the picture looks potentially more bullish with the obvious potential for a double bottom to form here.  On the left we have a vee bottom and on the right a rounded bottom which is often the case (one is vee, the other is rounded, doesn't matter which is which).   We have seen this stock collapse to these levels before only to be bought all the way up to $18.



On the news front, the recent climate conference (AKA COP21) climate deal saw an international agreement in principle to push toward more clean energy.  In layman's terms that means more government debt based spending on programs.  When government is picking winners and losers it boosts investor confidence.  As a result SPWR just got a $400mn loan at reasonable terms.

On the government budget front, dems want to extend renewable energy tax credits for another 5 years and in return the GOPs want to lift the ban on US oil exports.  You know that big lobby money (AKA political bribes) is flowing on both sides of this and so of course they reached a deal to spend more money that we don't have on stuff we could not afford without using debt.

By the way, the next time you read that hedge funds are doing this or that and that you should follow the smart money, realize that hedge funds are not the smart money.  Here is an article just 2 days old which states that "At the end of the third quarter, a total of 10 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of -29% from one quarter earlier.".   If the hedge funds were smart then they would be increasing, not decreasing positions into this kind of weakness.  Decreasing positions should be done at the top not at the bottom.