[AAPL] update

At the backlink my primary model for AAPL was for increasing pain.


Current snapshot seems like actual was a midpoint between my red and blue models.  It's too soon for shorts to crow yet but my primary count is for an eventual gap down which will be the moment of recognition that Apple mania is over.




Longer term, I see $50 as the next potential support point and that is only if this falls in 3 waves per the model below.  Somewhere within the blue ellipsis (3 of 3 or 3 of C), I boldly predict that "proud to be gay" Tim will be kicked out of the company.  Nobody and I mean nobody but me is saying this right now because so few both understand Elliott waves and how it reflects social mood which is to say the pendulum between liberalism and conservatism like I do.

Yes, some will think this is ballsy to the point of recklessness to make such predictions before the fat lady has even begun to warm up.  Some would call this arrogance.  IMO it is neither.  To me it is the logical progression of my long standing model of a swing toward conservatism.  Timmy Cook has set himself up to be blamed for AAPL's woes by suddenly getting the urge to go loud and proud about his liberalism right at the freaking peak.  Now he will pay for that just as Michael Sam has.  

But make no mistake, the pullback was coming even if Jobs was still at the helm.  If Jobs were there the pullback would be an a-b-c.  Without him, there is a real possibility that AAPL becomes a mania chart, falling back to close below where it started a couple decades ago.

For those who think my model is unrealistic because AAPL supposedly has 200 bn in cash on its balance sheet, all I can say is that figures don't lie but liars can figure.  Mish's views on these numbers are always to be respected IMO but even he gives benefit of the doubt by assuming that a complete foreign cash repatriation tax holiday will be given thus sidestepping 50 billion in taxes owed and also that 20 billion in accounts receivable is the same as cash when it is most definitely not.  Others will have other takes on it.  For example, Yahoo finance shows the numbers below.  Maybe they got mixed up but this is a pretty big mix up for one of the most popular names on the market.  You would have thought that yahoo would be inundated by emails from AAPL fan boys to fix this horrible mistake ASAP, yet here it is:




AAPL's omnipotence is an illusion just like so many other things.