[UGAZ] reversal signal has been given

Per the backlink model reproduced below, UGAZ has now traced out a higher high than my 3rd wave label thus making it a strong candidate for wave 5 of 1.

 

Current snapshot is below. 

So now we know where the turn points for wave 1,2,3, and 4 are.  EW says that 5 will likely be on a line that is drawn parallel to the 2-4 line.  Remember that 3 is the wild one so we generally do not use it as a hard and fast point on the line even though it often is.  If you have 2-3 available, use it as the reference for the other parallel line.

I will certainly sell when I see 5 wave up complete, especially if it kisses or just throws over that top rail.  2nd wave pullbacks tend to be deep.  The red model says the dip is to the prior 4th which is the 61.8 fib.  The blue says lets fill the gap before exploding upward.  Red is always primary in my models.



Again, if anyone has a view on how this was caused by so called fundamentals, now is the time to step forward and state your case in the comments.  You will receive fair treatment of your viewpoints but please come well armed to explain the whole picture in terms of fundamentals and that must somehow include an explanation of how anyone could possibly have predicted this chart movement in advance. 

This is not to say that EW models are always correct because they are not even when done perfectly to the rules.  This is why I reject the idea that some of my counts were "wrong" and embrace the idea that they simply went bust.  That is because the herd has free collective will and it can choose a new fate in real time. 

But herds are also collections of creatures of habit.  They like to travel the beaten path unless some kind of pressure forces them to use the alternate prairie dog dwelling exit or to use a different place for the wildebeest herd to cross the river this time.  Also, there might be miles and miles of river bank that the herd could cross at but there are not infinite good (and thus likely) crossing points.  In fact there are a good deal less likely crossing points than the novice herd watcher can imagine which is why most of them find it so unlikely that herd watching can be in any way predictive of the herd's next move.  Still, one can have one's own opinions but one cannot have one's own facts.

So the plan here is clear, bail out on the 5th of 1, show patience and discipline on the 3 wave pullback into 2 and then go big for the move up into 3, always using stops at EW defined points.