When good news is ignored, run for the exits. [NKE]

During a bull market, the news is always taken with a positive spin of some sort. Good news is good news and bad news doesn't seem to matter much.  But when you see stocks begin to absolutely get slaughtered for smallish missteps and when you see good news like DIS having the biggest box office opening in history for Star Wars only to see the stock decline, that's when it's time to worry.

And if those observations occur in conjunction with a peaking wave count then, really, why would anyone in their right mind continue to hold?  Because of some kind of fundamental valuation?  Puh-lease!  I have debunked that notion so many times already.  Fundamentals don't mean diddly most of the time.  Sometimes the same thing will be touted as a positive and other times a negative depending on what the stock market already did first.  The explanations are spun to meet the chart action.

In any case, the most recent good news is that Nike's profits are up by a healthy 20% in the November quarter.  The only problem with all of this is that it is very near the peak count that I provided in the backlink whose chart is reproduced below.  As you can see from the red (primary) model, I called that peak a W3 and then modeled a stiff but momentary pullback into wave red 4 followed by a rapid recovery to higher highs into red 5:



Well look at actual below.  Red W3 threw over a bit harder but then slammed down into red 4.  Just another coincidence I guess.  Or perhaps there is just a built in way that herds are likely to move and Elliott waves do a pretty good job of modeling this.  I bet the NKE herd thought it was really tricky slamming the chart down that way.  But clearly I called it in advance almost perfectly and so there has to be some kind of logic built into all of this.



Up until now I have not attempted to call a top on NKE.  I have said a top is coming but have not pulled the trigger yet.  However, because my model is being followed so closely, I'm going to have to be bold here and call an exact top to the NKE bull market.  I think that unicorn horn that threw over the top rail is likely to be the top.  There is a chance that I am off by 1 wave here making that wedge peak just 3 of 5 of C of 5 but that is not my primary count.  If I am off by 1 wave then expect a rapid move up to the $145 level before the big down turn back to $20 begins to unfold.  First support is now ~96 which is the top rail.  Once that top rail goes down, NKE is going down.

My models indicate that it's time to begin shorting this pig folks.  Note: the chart below includes extended trading.