EWI is convinced that the move up in gold has already begun. I still count this as a HT that has either put in the e of 4 or will do so in the next 2 weeks per the alternate blue path below. A move above blue a (red circle below) invalidates the HT model and suggests that the September low was the low.
Zooming in we can see the stalling tactics being used by the herd in order to avoid commitment. We got a solid break below the lower red rail but then a break back into the channel but then a gap back down below the lower rail. All of this back and forth suggests that red will not be the eventual lower rail. But if all this volatility takes it below the blue d below then the odds that it has entered 5 down increase rapidly. And so the herd has carefully avoided doing that for now.
Additionally, the lower red rail is presenting as resistance now per the circle below. This must break out very soon or the bulls are going to see another move down and it is currently my primary model to do so.
In any case this chart shows real indecision at this point. The herd is lined up on the banks with new herd piling in behind them each day. The herd must either head north or make one final river crossing south before the northward migration begins. This is how we have to think about share price movements because I have shown time and again that so called fundamentals have zero to do with current share price. All of it is driven by herding behavior. Those who accept this truth will be rewarded. Everyone else will eventually get frustrated by the so called unfairness of the markets. GATA pops to mind under that catagory.
The conflict below will likely resolve soon in an obvious way.
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