[ORIG] update

There's not much new since the backlink.  I still model that the recent bottom will be a major bottom and that my price target for the bounce is mid $9 range into 2016.  I'm looking for some kind of sign that says the reversal northward has begun and if we got a gap up above the upper rail as shown below then that would be the classical reversal signal.

They f-ing hate this at $1.50!!  Despite the fact that Ocean Rig prepaid a ton of debt on the cheap this past year and despite the fact that it has shown earnings growth, in no small part due to cost control, over the past year and despite the fact that it is already 75% booked for 2016, everyone is negative on this stock and Moody's even just downgraded their credit to Caa1 which is credit speak for "like Argentina" and negativity abounds with articles like "yeah this will be their last good quarter" etc.

In other words, a pessimistic view on everything.  Is 2016 75% booked already?  Helll no! It's 25% short of full utilization.  Did revs just exceed expectations again?  Sure they did but hey that's not sustainable.  Did they blow out the profit number too?  Yep but since we the writers of the financial rags know that oil prices can only go down from here, what chance does ORIG have for sustaining this performance?

You get the point.  Anything that can be viewed pessimisticly is being viewed pessimistically.  But hey, we love Amazon!  So what if the trailing PE is 950?  No that is not a joke, that is fact.
And so what if fantasy forward PE is 118, things will obviously only get better for Amazon!  And look at that price to book!  Folks, Amazon share valuation relative to its book value is more than, get this, 36 thousand times as great as ORIG PB.  But don't worry, fundamentals drive share prices, right?  Efficient market theory, right?

WRONG.

It's a popularity contest controlled by herding instincts.  Soon enough the herd will decide Amazon isn't such a great deal anymore.  Soon enough the herd will remember that the planet can only support its current population because of that energy reserve known as oil.  Solar will take decades to build out to get anywhere big enough to challenge the energy production of oil.

This level of pessimism assumes that the current negative trend will continue forever.  Where was this FUD at the top? NOWHERE.  But now everyone thinks oil will be free next year blah blah blah.  Good luck with that thinking.  Of course insanity can go on longer than people would ever think possible but then one day you wake up to the big pop and that starts the herd running in the other direction.  At these prices, ORIG can be thought of as a non-expiring call option on the price of oil.  When USO bounces to $20, ORIG will be back at $9.50 with everyone beginning to fawn all over it again as a turnaround, etc.