Metals and miners update.

In last Friday's update I saw the breakout of the rising wedge on JDST and suspected that it was going to turn right around and break back down through, probably to retrace all the way back to $10 while JNUG skyrocketed to $20.  Because of this wave count conviction I held JNUG over the weekend and even rode out the initial spike down into the $9.30 range.  Of course, I also believe that the dollar just finished 5 waves up and was due for a significant retracement so that made the conviction a bit easier.


While the jury is still out on that full model prediction, JDST did take out both the top and bottom rails of its rising wedge.  A key observation will come probably tomorrow and that will be whether or not this rising wedge pops back up above the top rail momentarily like TVIX recently did.

Below is the TVIX chart I'm referring to.  See how the throwover of the rising wedge is marked in red. Then it broke down both top and bottom rails to tell you that the wedge wave is over. Then we got a 5 wave green wave.   According to my proprietary indicator, rising wedges are 3rds or Cs right now.  If it is a C then it is either part of a larger triangle or it is corrective.  If, however, it is a 3rd then a 4th and 5th will come to complete the motive sequence.  So TVIX completed a 5 wave motive sequence and now most likely is headed higher.  There is a possible count that I see which would negate this model but it is not my primary count.  I included it at the bottom of this post just for the heck of it.

But what of JDST?  Will it complete 5 full waves up or will it turn out to be a C wave?  So tomorrow I think could be key for JDST/JNUG.  If JNUG pushed higher like TVIX did then I think the odds favor any pullback in JDST just being a breather with higher highs to come (and this is what the common GLD wave count is predicting).  But, if JDST cannot do that then it has formed an a-b-c and that suggests it was a corrective move which could mean that gold (and miners) are going to rally far higher than most people currently think will happen. 

Of course, all of these things are just hints and clues and pointers but if you put enough of them together it can be pretty amazing what one can do with the models.

Here is the alternate count for TVIX.  As written in today's market update, the DJIA is at a critical juncture. It must turn downward into a 3rd wave very soon, as in during Tuesday's trading session, and begin to pick up serious momentum lest the leading count start to look shabby.  I already have my doubts about it, again as expressed in the market update earlier today.  If I see TVIX meander up to fill that gap without powering through it, I am going to dump it until I'm sure that the wave is turning impulsive.  A higher high than 3.65 would of course be clear confirmation but I;m not going to let 65 cents slip away easily.  I'll ride it up in the AM and then step off when I count that a 3rd of C has complete and then if it goes down and then subsequently 1 penny higher I will get back in without losing much of the potential gain. Strong AM gap up to well above that gap marked in blue would be a good start...