Friday, May 19, 2017

Is Brazil screwed or what????? [EWZ]

The newspapers are full of bad news about Brazil.  The unelected sitting president, Temer, is now completely busted in a hush money payoff scam with known criminals.  What can I say but what took them so long to catch up with him?  Doesn't anyone read my blog??  Back in this May of 2016 post I warned Brazil and Brazilians about that dickhead criminal, "After decades of corruption throughout the entire public sector, a new piece of shit steps up to the podium and wants to act like everything is better now just because the invisible hand decided to throw one of its minions under the bus in order to appease the angry masses who have been bearing the brunt of Brazil's scam-o-nomics for literally decades.Temer, why should anyone trust you?  Only a fool would do that....  FU and your national security fears temer!  That is just a cover, like it is in the US and ALL corrupt states, for being allowed to tax you and then use the money however they want for their own benefit."

Oh sure, it sounds like such a grand big conspiracy theory and we all know that only crazy people will even consider a conspiracy as being true.  But damn ya'll, when will you finally realize that big government IS a criminal conspiracy?  How many times does the sledgehammer of obviousness have to smack you in the face before you feel the sting?  Read the words that I wrote: "FU and your national security fears temer!  That is just a cover, like it is in the US and ALL corrupt states, for being allowed to tax you and then use the money however they want for their own benefit.
Then consider this quote from the Temer article, "other released documents said the owner of a major meatpacker has told prosecutors that he transferred $150 million to offshore accounts for the campaigns of Temer's two predecessors in the presidency."

These assholes are treating the national treasury like it was their own little piggy bank, spending trillions in plain sight on useless crap so that they can squirrel off with hundreds of millions and billions because compared to lost trillions those amounts are in the noise.  Note the use of major legit corporations in the money laundering associated with the transfers.  This is how the elite in all countries are doing it IMO.

I have a bold prediction for the elite: they have not been careful enough moving the money around and soon there is going to be a global corruption witch hunt like never before seen on this planet. Those conservatives who have always been around but always repressed and pushed back by the liberals are going to be uplifted by the will of the people globally and they are going to make their names by chasing down some of those stolen trillions.  The money is huge, the stakes are high and the moral authority to do it has been restored.  Free market forces are going to cause those who are good at doing this kind of forensic accounting to be unleashed on the elite and it is going to surprise many common people to see so many corrupt elite getting pulled down off their high horses into the mud.

So let's go back to the question asked in the post title: is Brazil screwed or what?  I mean, their stock market plummeted on the news of Temer getting busted with an audio tape (as if his personal actions should have any value on the stock of public companies...).  And Mish is mocking the triple bullish Brazillian ETF (ticker:BRZU) for taking the biggest 1 day plummet in history.    

Yes, everyone hates Brazil right now.  It is the laughing stock of the world with all of its corrupt politicians going down in a fiery ball.  Only a fool would have anything to do with investment in Brazil right now.


I mean, we heard it on MSNBC.  We saw the sullen looks on reporters faces as they mentioned the huge one day shellacking that even the non-leveraged shares were taking.  So it must be game over for Brazil then.  Every pie hole in the main stream media is saying it so it must be true.   Never mind the fact that exposing con men and bringing them to justice is actually a good thing for the herd.

Of course as an Elliottician I ignore the news for investing purposes because the news is not always a very reliable indicator for the future direction of stocks (right now the news is pointing lower for Brazil).  Instead I think we should look to the Elliott wave count (as I have done so many times in these pages past). 

The wave count of the un-leveraged Brazil ETF (EWZ) is below and by the mere act of creating 5 waves up into blue 1 the chart itself predicted a big pullback before the pullback even began.  After 5 waves up we should see 3 waves back with the level of the pullback initially set to target the level of the prior 4th. 

Well, that seems to be just what happened on the Temer "news" ("news" is in quotes because Temer being a hardened career criminal was only news to children and simple minded adults).

This pullback is likely complete and what follows should be a very large rally to new highs despite all the political turmoil?  WHY?  Why should it do this?  Simply because my Elliott wave indicates with the data that I have that this is the most likely thing to happen.  Maybe I will be wrong this time.  Even the best Elliotticians only see the correct pattern 70% of the time.  But if I'm right then that BRZU ETU that Mish was mocking is likely about to go ballistic.  Then, instead of mocking it while it was in vogue with the rest of the herd to do so, he will realize he should have bought the dip.

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