the one that best matches the recent snapshot below is the red model which is the 3 wave retracement to the level of the prior 4th. Of course, it could also be a deep vee 2nd wave as well.
If MMM is not crashing, the markets cannot be crashing. Operational results are not great for much of the market and there is no doubt a weakening of conditions in place but it is slowing tapering. A real crash will not be due to such bad business conditions, it will be because of collapsing liquidity (fear of loaning money due to fear of non repayment). So far the jury is still out on whether that will actually materialize this time.
I speculate that if the 70.7 fib cannot hold as resistance then this is going to continue climbing, perhaps as a 5th wave that likely ends mid channel, perhaps as a deep vee second. With things so unclear I think we just have to look at resistance and support levels. A break back bellow the orange rail within the red circle would be the first indication that the rally is over. On these kinds of things I just set alarms in the software as I come across them. When a real change of trend is happening I will then end up with like 10 or even 15 alarms tripping within a 10 minute period or less and it warns me that something bigger than usual is afoot. This is just another alarm point for the software to track.
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